What The Stats Say: Opta Stats show how Vardy feasts on fresh blood

Wolves slow to get going

Wolves 1/12.02 v Crystal Palace 7/24.7; The Draw 12/53.4
Friday 30 October, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Box Office

“Since returning to the Premier League for the 2018-19 season, Wolves have failed to score a first half goal in 58 of their 82 matches, the most of any side in the competition over this period. Indeed, Wolves have failed to score a first half goal in each of their last five Premier League games.”

Wolves tend to score late and it could be worth taking a chance on the draw half-time/Wolves full-time double result landing at 9/25.3.

Narrow win for City

Sheffield United 10/111.0 v Manchester City 1/31.33; The Draw 5/16.2
Saturday 31 October, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

“Sheffield United have never beaten Man City in the Premier League in eight attempts (D3 L5), the most they’ve faced any side in the competition without a victory. They’ve failed to score in seven of these eight meetings, the highest percentage of games a side has failed to score against another in the Premier League (88% – minimum eight meetings).”

Manchester City are struggling to score themselves right now, so an away win and under 2.5 goals could land at 16/54.2.

Clarets can end brief Chelsea run

Burnley 11/26.4 v Chelsea 4/71.57; The Draw 7/24.7
Saturday 31 October, 15:00
Live on BT Sport Box Office

“Chelsea kept just their second away clean sheet in the Premier League under Frank Lampard at Man Utd last time out. The Blues haven’t kept recorded consecutive shutouts on the road in the competition since a run of three in October 2018.”

Chelsea have a poor record of defending from set-pieces and Burnley could take advantage. Back both teams to score at 4/51.83.

Mane has strong record against Hammers

Liverpool 2/51.42 v West Ham 15/28.6; The Draw 9/25.4
Saturday 31 October, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Both Sadio Mané (5 goals, 3 assists) and Mohamed Salah (6 goals, 2 assists) have been involved in eight goals in six Premier League appearances for Liverpool against West Ham, with Mané finding the net in each of his last four against the Hammers.”

Of Liverpool’s two star forwards, Mane is available at the bigger price of 11/102.1 to score and looks like the man to back on this occasion.

Saints are being underestimated

Aston Villa 6/42.54 v Southampton 15/82.9; The Draw 14/53.8
Sunday 1 November, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

“Only Liverpool (18) and Manchester City (15) have won more Premier League games in 2020 than Southampton (12, level with Arsenal and Manchester United).”

With Villa coming off a loss and Southampton beating Everton last weekend, the price for the visitors looks far too big. Back Southampton at 11/102.1 in the Draw No Bet market.

Everton love Newcastle trip

Newcastle 4.1 v Everton 21/202.04; The Draw 13/53.6
Sunday 1 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Only at West Ham (11) have Everton won more Premier League away games than they have vs Newcastle (8), with six of their eight victories at St James’ Park coming in their last nine visits.”

With such a strong past record and the good start made by Everton this season, odds of 21/202.04 for an away win look generous.

Another home draw for United

Manchester United 11/102.1 v Arsenal 11/43.7; The Draw 14/53.8
Sunday 1 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 13 home league games against Arsenal (W8 D5) since a 0-1 loss in September 2006.”

United drew 0-0 with Chelsea at home last weekend and against another side struggling to find a balance between defensive solidity and attacking intent, we could have another stalemate at 14/53.8.

Kane can move towards next milestone

Tottenham 4/61.66 v Brighton 5/15.8; The Draw 100/304.3
Sunday 1 November, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

“Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 148 Premier League goals in just 216 appearances – should he reach 150 goals in this fixture, it would make him the joint-second quickest player to the milestone in the competition’s history (alongside Sergio Agüero), with only Alan Shearer (212 games) doing so in fewer games.”

This looks like a fixture in which Spurs could score a few goals and Kane is 5/61.86 to find the net.

Promoted strugglers will go for win

Fulham 8/52.58 v West Brom 85/403.1; The Draw 12/53.4
Monday 2 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

“This is the first Premier League meeting between Fulham and West Brom since the 2013-14 season – in both games that term, Fulham took the lead in the opening 30 minutes, and West Brom levelled the game in the final five minutes.”

This is a match in which both Fulham and West Brom will be targeting a victory and both teams to score should land at 4/51.83.

Vardy back and scoring

Leeds 7/42.72 v Leicester 7/42.7; The Draw 13/53.6
Monday 2 November, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored 12 goals in his last 15 Premier League appearances against newly promoted teams, including nine goals in his last seven such matches.”

Vardy came off the bench to score the winner against Arsenal last weekend and is 11/102.1 to find the net again.

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