What The Stats Say: Opta show how Liverpool fail to meet goal expectations

Villa are away day clean sheet kings

Newcastle 4.003/1 v Aston Villa 2.0811/10; The Draw 3.711/4
Friday 12 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

“Only Manchester City have kept more Premier League clean sheets than Aston Villa this season (14). Eight of those shutouts for the Villans have been away from home, more than any other side.”

With Newcastle struggling, it’s worth taking a chance on Villa winning to nil at odds of 3.412/5.

Chelsea can continue run

Leeds 4.94/1 v Chelsea 1.794/5; The Draw 4.1
Saturday 13 March, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

“Chelsea have won five of their six away games in all competitions under Thomas Tuchel so far (D1), having lost four of their last five under Frank Lampard (W1).”

The visitors have a great defensive record since Tuchel took charge and this is another game where you should consider backing the away team to win to nil, this time at odds of 3.211/5.

Low scoring match at Selhurst Park

Crystal Palace 2.285/4 v West Brom 3.814/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 13 March, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“After a run of eight league games between December and February in which they conceded at least twice, West Brom have shipped just two goals in their last five Premier League matches. However, the Baggies have also scored just twice in this run (W1 D3 L1).

Crystal Palace do not score many goals themselves and under 2.5 goals should land at 1.664/6.

Everton have broken home hoodoo

Everton 1.9310/11 v Burnley 4.84/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 13 March, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Everton have won five of their six Premier League home games against Burnley (83%) – among teams they’ve faced at least five times at Goodison Park in the competition, they’ve only got a higher home win rate against Fulham (93% – 14/15).”

The Toffees recently ended their run of poor home form with a win against Southampton and look decent value at 1.9310/11 to win again.

Cottagers will keep it respectable

Fulham 11.010/1 v Manchester City 1.364/11; The Draw 5.49/2
Saturday 13 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

“Fulham have won three of their last six Premier League games (D2 L1), more than they had in their previous 24 in the competition (W2 D9 L13). The Cottagers have also kept five clean sheets in their last seven league games, one more than in their first 21 this term.”

It’s unlikely that Fulham will pick up any points against Manchester City, but they could make life tough and an away win and under 3.5 goals is available at 2.111/10.

Leaky south coast sides meet

Southampton 3.185/40 v Brighton 2.6413/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Sunday 14 March, 12:00
Live on BBC One

“Only Southampton themselves have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League than Brighton this season (17), with the Seagulls losing against Leicester last time out despite taking an early lead.”

With these two teams sharing a tendency to lose a lead, both teams to score seems a safe bet at 2.021/1.

Three points for Leicester

Leicester 1.564/7 v Sheffield United 7.87/1; The Draw 4.3100/30
Sunday 14 March, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Sheffield United have scored just 16 Premier League goals this season, with only Derby in 2007-08 (13), Aston Villa in 2014-15 (15) and Huddersfield Town in 2018-19 (15) scoring fewer at this stage of a Premier League campaign.”

The Blades are keeping things a little tighter these days, so back a Leicester win and under 2.5 goals at 3.412/5.

Kane is derby record holder

Arsenal 2.6613/8 v Tottenham 2.915/8; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 14 March, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Tottenham striker Harry Kane is the all-time highest goalscorer in Arsenal v Tottenham matches in all competitions, netting 11 goals for Spurs against the Gunners in total.”

With such a record, Kane looks big at 2.68/5 to add to his tally.

Hammers can score at Old Trafford

Manchester United 1.910/11 v West Ham 4.77/2; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 14 March, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“West Ham have led Manchester United at half-time in each of their last three Premier League games, though have gone on to win just one of those (D1 L1).”

The Hammers have scored in each of their last four Premier League games, including away at Manchester City and you can back both teams to score at 1.84/5.

Liverpool still not firing

Wolves 5.14/1 v Liverpool 1.814/5; The Draw 3.814/5
Monday 15 March, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Liverpool have scored with just two of their last 67 shots in open play in the Premier League, with these efforts at goal seeing an xG value of 6.7, meaning Liverpool would have been expected to score almost seven goals.”

Wolves are not an easy team to score against and under 2.5 goals looks generous at 1.9210/11.

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