Week 6 NFL Betting Primer

Welcome to the home of the 2020 NFL Betting Primer – your source for the best NFL stats and trends that you (probably) can’t find anywhere else on the internet.

Each week, I’ll comb through just about everything there is to look at and provide a quick list of my favorite nuggets for every single game to help you with your handicapping. A fresh article will be posted each Thursday, so keep an eye on my Twitter feed where I’ll post as soon as it’s ready.

Aside from my favorite trends, I like to look at stats such as yards per play, third-down conversion rate, red-zone TD scoring percentage, time of possession, sacks/QB pressures and turnovers. If I see some outliers that provide one team or one side of the total with a big edge over the other, I’ll be sure to share.

Keep in mind for the first few weeks of the season that many trends and stats need to be taken with a grain of salt because they don’t always carry over to a new season. All stats will become more relevant the deeper we get into a season as bigger sample sizes are more ideal for handicapping.

How to use betting trends:

It’s pretty simple – make sure there’s some logic to back up the trend. If the trend dates back to the early 1990s, spanning many coaching staffs and hundreds of players coming and going, then it doesn’t carry much weight. Sure, it makes for an interesting historical stat, but it’s not something to base a bet on.

The same goes for absurd trends crossing multiple variables like a team’s record in retractable-roof stadiums vs non-divisional opponents in the late-afternoon time slot in November. That foolishness is nothing more than coincidence and you won’t find trends like that in this article.

HOWEVER, some teams excel or follow a consistent pattern in certain situations and it’s important to consider these spots, especially for teams with long-standing head coaches and QBs and also in divisional matchups.

Betting trends should simply be used as a starting point for your handicap. Remember that oddsmakers always adjust. You should always have stats to support a trend if you’re betting on it to continue because every matchup needs to be looked at individually.

With that out of the way, LET’S GET RIGHT INTO THE ACTION!

Week 6 NFL Stats and Trends:

Denver at New England
  • The Patriots are second in QB pressure percentage created while the Broncos are last in QB pressure % allowed. The Broncos are sixth in QB pressure % created while the Patriots are 25th in QB pressure % allowed.
  • The Broncos rank 25th in third-down conversion % while the Patriots are sixth in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • The Broncos are 28th in points per game and 27th in yards per play.
  • The Patriots are fourth in time of possession, the Broncos are 22nd.
  • The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a bye week.
  • The Broncos are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Patriots are 24-3 SU and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games at home.
  • The Patriots are 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Broncos are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 20.8)
Baltimore at Philadelphia
  • The Ravens are eighth in points per game and first in points per game allowed.
  • These defenses rank fifth and sixth in yards per play allowed.
  • Each defense has been poor in the red zone, ranking 26th and 27th in opponent red-zone TD scoring %.
  • The Ravens rank first in yards per rush attempt and fifth in yards per rush attempt allowed.
  • Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for the most turnovers in the NFL with 11. The Ravens have the second-most takeaways.
  • The Ravens are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Ravens’ last six games. (Avg combined score: 44.17)
  • The Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Ravens’ last seven games in the early afternoon.
  • The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Eagles’ last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 35.56)
  • The Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Eagles are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games at home vs teams with winning records.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
  • The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games prior to a bye week.
  • The Bengals are 29th in points per game, the Colts are second in points per game allowed.
  • The Bengals are 30th in yards per play, the Colts are first in yards per play allowed.
  • These offenses rank 29th and 27th in third-down conversion % and 30th and 29th in red-zone TD scoring %.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Bengals’ last 11 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 42.27)
  • The Bengals are 0-14-1 SU in their last 15 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 9.07)
  • The Bengals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs.
  • The Colts are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games as home favorites.
  • The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home favorites.
  • The Colts are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games at home vs teams with losing records.
Detroit at Jacksonville
  • The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.
  • These teams rank 32nd and 26th in yards per play allowed.
  • The Jaguars are last in QB completion % allowed.
  • The Lions are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Lions are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 0-4 SU in their last four games. (Avg losing margin: 11.25)
Washington at New York
  • These teams rank 30th and 31st in points per game and 32nd and 29th in yards per play.
  • Washington is last in yards per rush attempt while the Giants are sixth in yards per rush attempt allowed.
  • Washington is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Washington’s last eight games. (Avg combined score: 54.25)
  • Washington is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington’s last 15 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Giants’ last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 48.83)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Giants’ last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington’s last 17 games on the road vs the Giants.
Chicago at Carolina
  • The Bears are first in opponent red-zone TD scoring %. The Panthers are 27th in that category on offense.
  • The Bears are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The Bears are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games at home vs teams with winning records.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
  • Pittsburgh’s opponents so far this season have a combined 3-15-1 SU record.
  • The Steelers ranks sixth in points per game allowed, fourth in yards per play allowed and first in QB pressure % created.
  • Baker Mayfield ranks 26th in completion %. The Steelers are second in QB completion % allowed.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Browns’ last four games. (Avg combined score: 65.25)
  • The Browns are 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Browns are 3-29 SU in their last 32 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Browns’ last nine games vs their division on the road.
  • The Steelers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home.
  • The Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games vs their division at home.
  • The Browns are 0-16 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs the Steelers. (Avg losing margin: 12.5)
Atlanta at Minnesota
  • The Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games prior to a bye week.
  • These teams rank 32nd and 30th in passing plays of 20+ yards allowed.
  • These teams rank 31st and 27th in points allowed and 31st and 25th in yards per play allowed.
  • The Falcons rank 26th in red-zone offense and 29th in red-zone defense. The Vikings are third and fifth in these categories.
  • The Falcons rank 30th in QB completion % allowed.
  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The Vikings are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games as home favorites.
  • The Vikings are 16-6 SU in their last 22 games after a loss.
  • The Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Falcons are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Vikings. (Avg losing margin: 11.0)
NY Jets at Miami
  • The Jets rank 32nd in points per game, 31st in yards per play, 28th in third-down conversion %, and last in red-zone TD conversion %.
  • The Jets are 30th in penalty yards per game. Miami is ninth.
  • The Jets are 30th in time of possession. Miami is sixth.
  • The Jets are 0-5 SU in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 17.2)
  • The Jets are 4-19 SU in their last 23 games on the road.
  • The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Dolphins’ last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 59.17)
  • The Dolphins are 7-1 SU in their last eight games as home favorites.
  • The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the late afternoon.
  • The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs the Dolphins.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
  • The Packers are first in points per game, yards per play and time of possession while also ranking third in third-down conversion %.
  • These teams rank third and eight in QB pressure % allowed.
  • These teams rank 29th and 28th in QB completion % allowed.
  • The Packers are the only team in the NFL without a turnover.
  • The Packers are 9-3-2 ATS following a bye week.
  • The Buccaneers rank 31st in penalty yards per game.
  • The Packers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Packers’ last six games. (Avg combined score: 60.17)
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of the Buccaneers’ last 19 games. (Avg combined score: 56.63)
  • The Buccaneers are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-18 SU in their last 23 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Buccaneers’ last 10 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Packers are 2-7 SU in their last nine games on the road vs the Buccaneers.
Houston at Tennessee
  • The Titans have a league-best +8 turnover differential. The Texans are 29th at -5.
  • The Titans rank 27th in yards per play allowed, 32nd in third-down conversion % allowed and 31st in opponent red-zone conversion %.
  • The Texans average the fewest penalty yards per game in the NFL.
  • The Texans are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Texans’ last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Texans are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS win.
  • The Texans are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Titans’ last 17 games. (Avg combined score: 52.18)
  • The Titans are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games vs their division at home.
  • The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in the early afternoon.
  • The Texans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs the Titans.
LA Rams at San Francisco
  • The Rams lead the NFL in net yards per play both overall and on the road.
  • The Rams are fifth in third-down conversion % and third in third-down conversion % allowed.
  • The 49ers rank 31st in QB Pressure % allowed.
  • Jared Goff is fourth in QB Completion %.
  • The Rams average the second-fewest penalty yards per game. The 49ers rank 22nd.
  • The Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
  • The Rams are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games as road favorites.
  • The Rams are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at night.
  • The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the 49ers’ last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The 49ers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Rams’ last seven games vs the 49ers. (Avg combined score: 55.86)
Kansas City at Buffalo
  • In his career, Patrick Mahomes has a 9-3-1 ATS record in regular-season prime-time games.
  • The Chiefs rank third in third-down conversion %. The Bills are 30th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • The Chiefs are seventh in red-zone TD %. The Bills are 26th in red-zone TD % allowed.
  • The Chiefs generate the fourth-most QB pressure. The Bills ranks 31st.
  • The Bills are 28th in penalty yards per game.
  • These teams rank fourth and fifth in passing plays of 20+ yards.
  • The Chiefs are 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last nine games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chiefs’ last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 41.25)
  • The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bills’ last five games. (Avg combined score: 56.2)
  • The Bills are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on Monday.
Arizona at Dallas
  • Arizona ranks fifth in points allowed. Dallas is last.
  • Arizona ranks third in red-zone TD % and second in opponent red-zone TD scoring %.
  • Arizona ranks sixth in opponent completion %.
  • Dallas is tied with Philadelphia for the most turnovers in the NFL with 11.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Cardinals’ last five games. (Avg combined score: 46.0)
  • The Cardinals are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
  • The Cardinals are 5-14 SU in their last 19 games after a win.
  • The Cardinals are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road after winning their most recent road game.
  • The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Cowboys are 4-1 SU in their last five games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Cowboys’ last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 73.0)
  • The Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
  • The Cardinals are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs the Cowboys.

Best NFL Betting Sites

Latest posts