Virginia vs Duke: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – February 20, 2021

The No. 7 Virginia Cavaliers (15-4) visit the Duke Blue Devils (9-8) in a matchup of ACC teams at Cameron Indoor Stadium, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, February 20, 2021. The Cavaliers are 2-point favorites in the game, the first matchup between the squads this season. The matchup has an over/under of 132.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 20, 2021, 2:19 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Blue Devils (+2)

The data strongly suggests betting on the Blue Devils in this one. The model favors them while DraftKings has the Cavaliers favored and the difference between the two is 3.1 points.

Pick OU:
Over (132)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (138.5 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (132 points).

Prediction: Duke 70, Virginia 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Cavaliers this season is 68.3 points, 1.3 more points than their implied total of 67 points in Saturday’s game.
  • Virginia has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (67) 10 times this season.
  • The Blue Devils’ average implied point total on the season (76.4 points) is 11.4 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (65 points).
  • Duke is trying to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (65) for the 17th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Virginia and Duke Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Cavaliers 11-7 10-5 9-9
Blue Devils 5-11 5-10 10-6

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Cavaliers have a 48.9% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.4% higher than the 46.5% of shots the Blue Devils’ opponents have hit.
  • Virginia is 8-4 against the spread and 12-1 overall when it shoots higher than 46.5% from the field.
  • Duke is 8-3 overall and 5-5 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot better than 48.9% from the field.
  • The Blue Devils’ 46.8% shooting percentage from the field this season is 5.2 percentage points higher than the Cavaliers have allowed to their opponents (41.6%).
  • Duke is 5-7 against the spread and 9-4 overall when it shoots better than 41.6% from the field.
  • Virginia is 14-1 overall and 11-3 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot above 46.8% from the field.
  • The Cavaliers shoot 39.7% from beyond the arc, 2.5% higher than the 37.2% the Blue Devils allow to opponents.
  • Virginia is 5-4 against the spread and 8-2 overall when it shoots better than 37.2% from downtown.
  • Duke is 4-5 against the spread and 7-3 overall when its opponents hit more than 39.7% of their shots from deep.
  • The Blue Devils shoot 35.7% from beyond the arc this season. That’s just two percentage points higher than the Cavaliers have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (33.7%).
  • Duke is 5-2 overall and 3-3 against the spread when it shoots above 33.7% as a team from three-point range.
  • Virginia has a 10-1 ATS record and a 12-0 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.7% from three-point distance.
  • Virginia is 9-2 against the spread and 10-1 overall when it hit more three-pointers than its opponents, while Duke is 2-5 ATS and 4-3 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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