Variance… oh boy…

It was a matter of time before this happened, I just was hoping it wouldn’t happen in one session. My AV was almost double my EV. I had the biggest loss by far I have ever had in one session (previously it was $685).

Let me start off by saying that I was not playing through too many negative counts, and I was able to play most of the rounds by myself. I would play 2-3 hands if the TC hit -1 or -2 (if it was towards the end of the shoe), then leave to go to the bathroom or getting something to eat.

I should’ve known it was a sign when I started off this morning by losing my first 10 hands… in a row. The dealer kept flipping 18-20’s and somehow making their hand to 20-21 with 13-16’s, WHEN I WAS STAYING ON 13-16’s because they were showing 2-6. And when I did hit, and got to 19-20, the dealer flipped a 10 or 11 and 90% of the time went 20 or 21 to either push or beat me. Double downs weren’t working (10,11 or softs)…

Worse of all, when the TC hit 4-5 and I had my max bet out there (2x$60), I was not getting the cards… the dealer was. There were 2 shoes today where the TC was 5+ for the last half of the shoe and I kept getting 12-14 while dealer showed face. I busted, dealer flipped 20. When I did make my hand to 17-20, against a dealer’s face, dealer had 20.

Overall, it was just a really crappy morning and I lost $1,065 (which is 107 betting units if you want to put into perspective with your bet size). Everyone was struggling today, it just SEEMED like something was up with the cards, although I know there wasn’t.

That’s my rant for today… I’ll probably be back tomorrow trying to still generate that EV, but that definitely was a hard punch to the stomach.

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