UFC Vegas #14 Betting Prediction: Geraldo De Freitas vs. Tony Gravely

With UFC’s latest event ready to occur, the number of betting opportunities should keep you busy. In more than a handful of excellent fights, you can turn your attention to the prelims to find a few of those matchups.

One fight to look at is the bantamweight battle between Geraldo de Freitas Jr. and Tony Gravely.

Date: Nov. 14, 6:00 PM

Venue: UFC Apex

Watch on: ESPN+

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. (12-5-0)

De Freitas Jr. is coming off a split decision loss against Chris Gutierrez back in August of 2019. Before that, he won his debut bout in the form of a decision earlier that year.

His fighting resume shows that he has four wins by knockout, five by submission, and three by decision. With this balanced resume, he also has six first-round finishes with a combination of knockouts and submissions.

“The Spartan” has a striking accuracy at 47% and a grappling accuracy at 50%. He lands 2.97 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.30. This ratio is respectable, and de Freitas appears to be on the right track for an even better ratio in the future.

De Freitas Jr. has a takedown defense at 60% and a significant strike defense at 49%. He also averages four takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Tony Gravely (19-6-0)

Gravely is coming off of a submission loss to Brett Johns back in January. Before that, he took care of business, winning his debut fight against Ray Rodriguez.

His fighting resume shows that he has eight wins by knockout, three by submission, and eight by decision. He also has three first-round finishes with a combination of knockouts and submissions, but he also has five submission losses.

Gravely’s striking accuracy sits at 59% and a grappling accuracy at 66%. He lands 3.94 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.03. This is a remarkable ratio, as he almost delivers double what he absorbs in strikes.

Gravely has a takedown defense at 41% and a significant strike defense at 44%. He also averages 4.77 takedowns and 1.20 submissions every 15 minutes.

Odds For This Event

The market has had this one close from the beginning. For the moneyline, BetDSI has the odds currently set at:

de Freitas Jr.: +120

Gravely: -145

* odds are subject to changes

Free Betting Pick

Both of these fighters have two UFC bouts under their belt, so they are still relatively new to this league. They almost had similar performances, and they stack up well on paper.

You will get to see a very balanced fight early in this UFC event, as these two can perform well on their feet and also are not afraid of aggressive takedowns.

Overall, Gravely has an advantage with a better significant strike ratio and his aggressive takedowns. However, he will need to make sure he defends well against de Freitas’ takedowns.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Gravely wins via decision, at -145

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