UFC 254 Betting Prediction: Justin Gaethje vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

UFC 254 is Saturday Night with an excellent main event fight that you simply must watch. The fight to take a look at is the lightweight showdown between current UFC Lightweight Champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Interim UFC Lightweight Champion, Justin Gaethje.

  • Date: Saturday, October 24, 1:00 PM
  • Venue: Flash Forum
  • Watch on: PPV

Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0)

Khabib is currently the undefeated UFC Lightweight champion. His fighting resume shows that he has 8 wins by knockout, 10 by submission, and 10 by decision.

“The Eagle” has a striking accuracy at 49 percent and a grappling accuracy at 47 percent. He lands 4.11 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 1.65.

Khabib is known as being one of the best grapplers in the UFC, and furthermore in all of MMA. Khabib has a takedown defense at 84 percent and a significant strike defense at 67 percent. He also averages 5.35 takedowns and 0.70 submissions every 15 minutes.

Justin Gaethje (22-2-0)

Gaethje is currently ranked as the number one fighter and is the interim title holder in the lightweight division. His fighting resume shows that he has 19 wins by knockout, 1 by submission, and 2 by decision.

“The Highlight” has a striking accuracy at 59 percent and nothing for a grappling accuracy. He lands 7.74 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 8.37. This ratio is a little off on the absorbing side, since he had a few fights where he was greatly out struck.

Gaethje has a takedown defense at 80 percent and a significant strike defense at 54 percent. He does not have any averages for takedowns or submissions per 15 minutes of fight time. Gaethje has the one punch power that could serve as the answer for Khabib, as Nurmagomedov has never really faced anyone with the one punch KO power that Gaethje possesses.

Odds For This Event

The market is anxious to see this one unfold. BetDSI has the odds currently placed at:

Khabib: -313

Gaethje: +249

*odds are subject to changes

Potential Winning Pick

Both of these fighters have tremendous success in their fighting resumes. In that aspect, can their odds be justified here?

Gaethje is an excellent in your face kind of striker. He stays on his feet a majority of the time and simply looks for a knockout every fight. However, that has gotten him twice in back to back losses where his opponents had landed a lot more strikes than he did.

Khabib can do this too, but it is not his style. He enjoys wearing down his opponents and I believe he will be able to give Gaethje another loss in the form of a submission.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Khabib wins via submission

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