Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/30

Locks

NCAA Football – Florida @ Oklahoma -7 (110):

This has been the biggest line swing of the bowl season, and with good reason. Florida opened as 2.5 point favorites off their performance in the SEC Championship, deservedly so given how they looked in the second half of that game. But since then it’s been nothing but bad news for the Gators, as opt-outs and COVID have severely depleted their offense for this matchup. Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, and Jacob Copeland (Florida’s four leading receivers) will not play in this game, and there is also some question as to how much QB Kyle Trask will play as he looks ahead to the draft.

I don’t see how an offense that depleted can produce enough against a stout Oklahoma defense, especially to counter what the awful Gator defense is going to give up. I think this is a showcase game for Sooner QB Spencer Rattler, and a spot where Oklahoma wants a positive end to a frustrating season. This could get out of hand, so lay the points with Oklahoma.

NCAA Basketball – Murray State @ Belmont -2 (-110):

When I look at the Ohio Valley Conference this season, Belmont should be able to win on cruise control. The supposed ascendance of Austin Peay has not materialized, and this Murray State team has been a big disappointment. They’re being carried by K.J. Williams, but poor shot selection by Tevin Brown keeps holding them back along with some other glaring weaknesses.

I’d also caution against reading too much into their team scoring and shooting metrics, as those are inflated by a 173-point outburst against a non-D1 opponent to start the season. Belmont is absolutely the class of the OVC this year, with the best shooter in the conference Luke Smith and the biggest matchup problem in Nick Muszynski. This is a big game for the Bruins every season, so I think they get up for it and win comfortably.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball – Tennessee/Missouri Over 132 (-110):

When I look at this matchup I immediately think strong defensive teams, especially Tennessee, and so did the oddsmakers. And while these are two very good defenses, I think trends and situational matchups aren’t getting enough attention. The Tennessee offense in particular is really trending in the right direction after a sluggish start to the season.

What has improved significantly for them is field goal percentage and shot selection as the Vols rack up lots of easy buckets. Meanwhile, in Missouri’s games against Oregon and Illinois’ strong offenses, they gave up 75 and 78 points, respectively. I think Tennessee performs around that level offensively. I also see a close game where fouls and free throws towards the end can help get over this relatively low number.

Tiny Nick is 82-37 ATS (+44.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.

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