Welcome to the Thursday Night Football betting breakdown, where each week I’ll provide a detailed betting overview of the upcoming Thursday Night Football game utilizing moneyline, points spread and projected total odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. I’ll also highlight at least one player- or game-based prop each week that I feel has profit potential.
This Week 7 NFC East battle pits a pair of struggling squads in the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants are coming off their long-awaited first win of the Joe Judge Era. They escaped with a 20-19 victory over the Washington Football Team in Week 6. The Eagles made a surprising late surge against the Baltimore Ravens before falling by a 30-28 score in a game they went into without multiple offensive starters and then proceeded to lose two more in.
This past Sunday, Philadelphia saw Miles Sanders (knee) and Zach Ertz (ankle) join its expanding MASH unit of skill position players that already includes Alshon Jeffery (foot), DeSean Jackson (hamstring), Dallas Goedert (IR-ankle) and Jalen Reagor (IR-thumb). Jackson has the best shot to play in this contest. Meanwhile, New York is still likely to be without Sterling Shepard (toe). He was designated to return from injured reserve Tuesday but may not yet be ready to suit up Thursday.
All betting takes will be classified as a “pick”, with considerations such as relevant injuries, past betting trends and recent performances of each team leading up to the game factoring in.
For more detailed information on this week’s matchup – including further game analysis, betting trends breakdown, betting tips specific to TNF, and a synopsis of the history of the line movement for the game, please see our Thursday Night Football Betting Preview over at TheLines.
TNF betting odds: Giants at Eagles
Quarterback play is arguably more pivotal to NFL success than ever in this pass-friendly era. As such, it’s unsurprising the Giants and Eagles are coming into this divisional meeting with losing records. Both New York’s Daniel Jones and Philly’s Carson Wentz are significantly underperforming relative to preseason expectations.
With the previously listed injuries that have played a part in their struggles mostly carrying over to this contest, we’re likely in for a lower-scoring affair that could easily turn on a defensive play or a blown coverage. The difficulties each team has encountered have mainly been on the offensive side of the ball. Each squad’s defense has played reasonably sound football under the circumstances.
The Eagles are surrendering a sparse 229.7 passing yards per game. They’ve also taken quarterbacks down on 21 occasions. That’s good for the third-most sacks in the league. Meanwhile, the Giants are producing just 187.5 passing yards per contest and have allowed 17 sacks through six contests.
Devonta Freeman has averaged 3.2 yards per carry thus far as a stand-in for Saquon Barkley, who tore his ACL against the Bears in Week 2. The popular narrative surrounding Freeman in recent seasons is that he’s essentially washed. However, it bears noting New York’s offensive line is doing him no favors. They’re producing an NFL-low 3.2 adjusted line yards and 3.1 running back yards per carry. Once again, Philly has to be licking its chops at a matchup that looks ideal on paper. The Eagles are yielding figures of just 3.4 and 3.2 in those categories, respectively.
A healthy Jackson would be particularly welcome for the Eagles and offer the emerging 6-foot-2, 215-pound Travis Fulgham an ideal speed complement. With the trio of Greg Ward, John Hightower and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside mostly ineffective in recent games, the 2019 sixth-round pick of the Lions has risen to the forefront by posting a 16-227-2 line over the last pair of contests. The chemistry is clearly there with Wentz. He’s already peppered Fulgham with 26 targets in just three games. Jackson’s availability would force star offseason acquisition James Bradberry to either him or Fulgham. That would leave third-year man Isaac Yiadom, who’s allowing a 77.8 percent completion percentage in primary coverage thus far, to handle the other.
Boston Scott, who notably rang up three rushing touchdowns versus these same Giants in the 2019 regular-season finale, should see a bulk of the rushing work in Sanders’ stead. New York is surrendering just 3.9 yards per carry to running backs. However, Philadelphia’s offensive line is generating the fifth-most RB yards (4.9) per carry.
The combination of a more experienced quarterback in Wentz and a better shot of a balanced offensive attack puts me in the direction of an Eagles home victory.
The Pick: Eagles moneyline (-200 or better)
TNF Point Spread
The Giants are 3-3 against the spread this season, including 3-0 as a road team and 1-1 in division games.
The Eagles are 2-4 (33.3 percent) against the spread this season, including 1-2 (33.3 percent) as a home team and 1-1 in division games
Philadelphia needs to get back in the win column with the NFC East there for the taking for any team that can get on a run. While I don’t expect a lot of points scored here, if Jackson returns to action as expected, I can see the Eagles separating enough for the cover.
The Lean: Eagles -4 or better
TNF Over/Under Total
The Over is 2-4 (33.3 percent) in New York’s games this season, including 1-2 (33.3 percent) in its away games and 1-1 in its games against division opponents.
The Over is 4-2 (66.7 percent) in Philadelphia’s games this season, including 2-1 (66.7 percent) in its home games and 1-0 in its games against NFC East opponents.
I don’t see ether offense being able to really hit its stride here, especially with the Giants’ body of work thus far and the Eagles’ short-handed pass-catching group. Consequently, I’m in the camp of the Under.
The Lean: Under 43.5 points or better
Best TNF Prop Bet
Devonta Freeman Under 54.5 rushing yards (-115 or better)
As cited earlier, the matchup between the Giants’ run-blocking-challenged offensive line and the Eagles’ aggressive defensive front is essentially an ideal one for Philly. Freeman also doesn’t have the same quickness in hitting the hole as earlier in his career. Then, while Freeman has eclipsed this total in each of the last two games, he’s done so at pedestrian averages of 3.6 and 3.4 yards per carry, respectively, while the Eagles have given up just 3.2 RB yards per rush.