Things I’ve learned betting on the NFL

I’m going to keep this short, I’ve been betting on the NFL for a long time, every year I make money and today I had my biggest payday in the history of my gambling and I’m feeling generous so I wanted to share the NFL commandments of my betting that I’ve written down and always refer before placing a bet. I know these are simple but these are the building blocks of a good bet.

  1. Good coaches with good quarterbacks pay off, if you get the hook here even better. I know this has been said before but never trust a shitty coach, looking at you Bill O’ Brien, Adam Gase, Zac Taylor, Raheem Morris, etc.

  2. No one is ever “due,” anyone who says this is an idiot. These are professionals playing for real money and jobs.

  3. Teams don’t play to cover, meaning anything -7.5 and over should really be scrutinized.

  4. If two mediocre to subpar teams are evenly matched and you get the free hook then take it, my cut off is +3

  5. Two good or great defenses don’t always mean a low scoring game but two bad defenses will usually be high scoring

  6. Never underestimate the loss of a non-QB key player on offense or defense. Those players are sometimes the emotional drivers of a team. WRs for QBs and any hallmark defensive player the team loves.

  7. Look ahead spots are real when a marquee team faces an inconsequential scrub. Use money lines if there are a number of these on the slate and just make a parlay.

  8. Parlays are hard so make them easier. Lean toward money lines and if you have to add a spread purchase through the nearest key number at the minimum (Ex: Don’t let it sit on -3.5, get it to -2.5)

My strategy each week is to only bet the games I love, I don’t allow myself to bet for “fun” to watch a game. I put a unit on each game I love after reviewing SportsLine, podcasts, other analytic websites. I then make those bets (usually three to four bets) into a parlay and then have a parlay of separate moneylines I love as well, usually three teams. If I have heavy spread leans I will place those in a small parlay ( NEVER more than four games) and buy through the key numbers as I see fit. This is my system and it has not failed me. I don’t bet on teams if I’m emotionally involved in the outcome. Feel free to criticize but this is my system and year after year it works.

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