I’ve been covering United States presidential election odds for the past 14 months. One of my international colleagues shot me a quick note Monday night, “I wish your country luck.” In 2020, it takes more than luck to decide an election and verify a winning bet. America is running on fumes, ingesting way too much caffeine and junk food and we’re probably at least 24 hours away from learning which candidate won the 2020 U.S. Election.
|2020 U.S. Election Betting Odds||Online Sportsbook (11/4/20 – Morning)||Online Sportsbook (11/4/20 – Morning)|
|Donald Trump||+350 (Last week +150)||+350 (Last week +175)|
|Joe Biden||-500 (Last week -180)||-430 (Last week -200)|
Election night 2020 should have come with a warning label: may cause whiplash.
Online sportsbook Bovada’s odds to win the presidency ping-ponged the spectrum as President Trump and Biden picked up electoral college votes. Trump’s odds peaked at 10:10 p.m. ET when they soared to -775 or an implied probability of 88.57% of winning. Ten minutes later, those odds were sliced back down to -300 as Biden’s road to 270 became easier. As of Wednesday morning, most oddsmakers believed Biden’s chances to win battleground states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were great enough to tag him with odds carrying an implied probability of better than 73%.
Just remember, nothing is definitive and one flap of a butterfly wing could nudge Trump back into the lead. It’s unlikely, but it’s feasible.
|Time||D. Trump Odds||J. Biden Odds|
|11:00 am ET||+320||-460|
|10:00 am ET||+340||-475|
|9:00 am ET||+235||-330|
|7:30 am ET||+270||-390|
|2:00 am ET||-240||+175|
|1:40 am ET||-210||+155|
|1:25 am ET||-180||+135|
|1:10 am ET||-160||+120|
|1:00 am ET||-145||+110|
|12:50 am ET||-160||+120|
|12:30 am ET||-165||+125|
|12:15 am ET||-150||+115|
|12:10 am ET||-180||+135|
|12:00 am ET||-135||+105|
|11:50 pm ET||-150||+115|
|11:40 pm ET||-165||+125|
|11:30 pm ET||-190||+145|
|11:15 pm ET||-295||+215|
|11:05 pm ET||-330||+235|
|11:00 pm ET||-240||+180|
|10:45 pm ET||-270||+200|
|10:35 pm ET||-250||+185|
|10:20 pm ET||-300||+220|
|10:10 pm ET||-775||+450|
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Poll Positions
The presidential polls were wrong. Again. This led well-known Republican pollster Frank Luntz to reach this conclusion.
“The political polling profession is done,” Republican pollster @FrankLuntz told @axios. “It is devastating for my industry.”
— Sara Cook (@saraecook) November 4, 2020
Here’s where the polls stood in battleground states one week ago today and which way the electoral college vote has gone:
- Arizona – Biden leads by 5 points (11 electoral college votes) | Biden likely to win
- Florida – Biden leads by 2 points (29 electoral college votes) | Trump Won
- Georgia – Biden leads by 1 point (16 electoral college votes) | Still counting votes
- Michigan – Biden leads by 8 points (16 electoral college votes) | Still counting votes
- North Carolina – Biden leads by 2 points (15 electoral college votes) | Still counting votes
- Pennsylvania – Biden leads by 5 points (20 electoral college votes) | Still counting votes
- Wisconsin – Biden leads by 9 points (10 electoral college votes) | Joe Biden won by 20.6K votes
Nothing is guaranteed in 2020 and the final United States election results are no exception.
In the lead up to November 3 and, now, beyond, Gamble Online will publish weekly 2020 U.S. election betting coverage with the latest polling news and updated betting odds. If you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on the 2020 United States election or are interested in learning more about the online sportsbooks that offer political odds and unique prop bets, be sure to check out our new expert 2020 election guide.