Texas at No. 6 Oklahoma State Preview | 2020 NCAA Expert Analysis

Texas has two losses in the Big 12 so a defeat Saturday at No. 6 and unbeaten Oklahoma State would all but end UT’s chances of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cowboys are short favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Texas at Oklahoma State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

Last Meeting

Last season, the Longhorns were 36-30 winners over visiting Oklahoma State when Texas was ranked No. 12 and OSU unranked. UT ended a four-game losing streak to the Cowboys and ended a five-game skid in the series in games played in Austin dating to 2010. Horns QB Sam Ehlinger threw for 281 yards and four scores. They needed his clock-killing 29-yard run in the final minute to put the game away. Star Cowboys running back Chuba Hubbard had 121 yards but it took him 37 carries. He scored twice but was also stuffed near the goal on key drives early and late.

Texas leads the all-time series 25-9 and is 8-3 in Stillwater. After Texas won 12-straight meetings from 1998-2009, the Cowboys have won seven of the last 10 meetings between the schools since 2010.

Why Bet on Texas? | 2020 NCAA Expert Analysis

The Longhorns (3-2) ended a two-game losing streak last Saturday with a 27-16 win over Baylor. The Bears capitalized on a UT turnover, returning an interception to the Texas 25-yard line and scoring on 7-yard a touchdown pass five plays later, cutting the Texas lead to 27-16 with 7:37 remaining in the game.

Baylor regained the ball with 4:01 to play but had their drive end when Chris Brown broke up a pass on fourth-and-7 deep in Bear territory. Texas sealed the game when Sam Ehlinger connected with Cade Brewer for 13 yards on fourth-and-2 from the Baylor 17-yard line with under two minutes remaining in the game.

Ehlinger completed 15-of-23 passes for 270 yards and threw one touchdown. He also carried the ball 15 times for 51 yards and two touchdowns. The senior surpassed 12,000 yards of total offense for his career, becoming the 12th player in Big 12 history, and second Longhorn ever (Colt McCoy; 14,284), to achieve that feat. He also passed Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech, 2014-16) for fifth place on the Big 12 Conference’s total touchdowns leaderboard. Following Saturday, he has logged 117 total touchdowns in his career.

It was Ehlinger’s 18th-straight game with at least 200 passing yards, the second-longest streak in school history and three games shy of Major Applewhite’s school record. Has thrown for at least 200 yards 34 times in his career after Saturday, also the second-best tally on UT record (Colt McCoy; 38). It was Ehlinger’s 17th career game with at least one passing and rushing touchdown, extending his school record. No other player in UT history has done so more than 14 times.

The Longhorns are now 13-4 following losses in four seasons under Tom Herman. That includes a 5-2 mark since the start of the 2019 season. Texas has scored 590 points (34.7 ppg) following losses under Herman. In 2020, the Longhorns have scored 45 (vs. Oklahoma) and 27 (vs. Baylor) points following losses.

As for this matchup, Texas holds an 8-9 record against top-25 foes during Herman’s three seasons as head coach. The Longhorns are 7-5 against ranked opponents since the start of the 2018 season after going just 1-4 against top-25 teams in 2017, Herman’s first season in charge.

UT is 15-2-1 all-time when playing on Halloween, a mark that includes a road win over then-No. 13 Oklahoma State in 2009. The Longhorns are 3-1 all-time against ranked opponents and 7-2-1 on the road in games played on Halloween.

Why Bet on Oklahoma State? | 2020 NCAA Expert Analysis

The Cowboys (4-0) edged No. 17 Iowa State 24-21 last week. QB Spencer Sanders passed for 235 yards and ran for 71 and a touchdown in his return from injury – he had been out since injuring his right ankle in the season-opener against Tulsa. Chuba Hubbard ran for 139 yards and a touchdown for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys joined Kansas State as the only remaining undefeated teams in conference play. Hubbard has rushed for at least 100 yards in 18 of his past 21 games. He also has a rushing touchdown in 18 of those 21 games

OSU is 4-0 for the first time since 2015 and for the fifth time in the Mike Gundy era. The win was Gundy’s 30th career vs. AP Top 25 opponents. Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney are the only other active coaches with 30 wins over AP Top 25 teams at their current schools. OSU is now 47-14 at Boone Pickens Stadium since the start of the 2011 season.

Oklahoma State is 23-8 in its past 31 games decided by fewer than 10 points and 28-3 in its past 31 games when leading at halftime, dating back to Sept. 17, 2016.

OSU has held its first four opponents to a combined total of 48 points. This is the fewest points allowed in a four-game stretch during Gundy’s tenure as head coach (2005-now). It is also the fewest points allowed in the first four games of a season at Oklahoma State since 1997.

Allowing only 12.0 points per game this season, OSU leads the Big 12 and ranks eighth nationally in scoring defense. The Cowboys have held their opponents to a combined total of 11-for-57 on third down attempts for a conversion rate of .193 (No. 3 in the FBS). The OSU defense is also among the national leaders in sacks (No. 6), tackles for loss (No. 7), 4th-down defense (No. 12), passing efficiency defense (No. 12), red zone defense (No. 12), passing yards allowed (No. 16), and total defense (No. 19).

Saturday will be the first time OSU has hosted a game on Halloween since 2009 and the first time it has played on Halloween since 2015. The Cowboys are looking for three straight wins over Texas in Stillwater to mark their longest home win streak in the series.

Game Trends

  • Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Favorite is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
  • Road team is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
  • Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oklahoma State.

Expert PredictionOklahoma State 33, Texas 31


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