Tennis+ Daily Discussion – 11/7/20 (Saturday)

POTD record: 20-1-16

Profit: 6,53u

One redditor suggested that I don’t post all of my picks because it’s kinda dumb to scroll through 36 picks, I get it. To get more perspective into my betting, I started really well, but last picks weren’t that great, I prefer betting on underdogs as there is more value often there. I have a tennis betting model which did pretty well at the restart of the tennis season, but lately hasn’t been as well, although it’s still in profit. Model predicted picks for tomorrow:

Alexander Zverev to win vs Rafael Nadal @2,37

Pick of the day (and not model predicted): Milos Raonic to win vs Daniil Medvedev @2,62

Model record: 12-17

Profit: 3,02u

Why do I think Raonic will win?

Raonic has been in great form since tennis returned, played fantastically in Cincinnati, unfortunately not that well in USO, and then played well in indoor hard court season. He’s had some impressive victories (Tsitsipas, Humbert, Khachanov…). He is serving very well (25 aces today) and as it has been showed Medvedev hasn’t had the time of his life with big servers (Opelka and Anderson). He has looked impressively against win vs Schwartzman, but Diego doesn’t match up well with him if he isn’t at his best.

Why do I think Zverev will win? We can all agree Nadal hasn’t impressed us so far, dropped a set against Lopez and PCB and almost dropped a set vs Thompson. Zverev had stretches where he hasn’t looked great, but still he is playing well overall and serving very well which can earn him easy points. Zverev beat him last time they played on hard (London) and is in better form currently.

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