Serie A Tips: Juve to beat Napoli again, Lazio trouble Inter

Supercoppa repeat

Napoli v Juventus
Saturday, 17:00
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Napoli will be desperate to beat Juventus on Saturday evening, desperate to be the team to end Juve’s currently ominous run, desperate to avenge their defeat in the Supercup a few weeks ago, and desperate to teach the Champions a lesson after what went on between the clubs earlier in this campaign.

Napoli did beat Juve in their last League meeting last January, but that doesn’t have much bearing on this weekend. It would be Napoli’s first consecutive Serie A wins against Juventus in nearly ten years, and I think that’s an unlikely outcome here.

Napoli are without a win in their last three games in all competitions, whereas Juve have settled into a rhythm. Their 0-0 draw against Inter in midweek might have ended their run of 10 wins in 11 in all competitions, but it put them into the Coppa Italia final, where they will play Atalanta, rather than Napoli.

Napoli are exceptional defensively most of the time, but missing Kostas Manolas and Kalidou Koulibaly. They are extremely capable going forward, but I think the bare facts are that Juventus are simply the better side, significantly so at the moment given the run that they are on. The Champions have kept six clean sheets in their last seven games in all competitions, and I could see them winning a low scoring game here. They’re certainly the bet at odds against.

Still no home win for Toro

Torino v Genoa
Saturday, 14:00
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

Torino might have won their last six Serie A games against Genoa, and have an extraordinary record against them in recent years, but I still think that Davide Ballardini’s side look a useful bet with a half goal start on the Asian Handicap.

Genoa have won their last three Serie A games and looked good doing so. They have become extremely hard to beat under Ballardini and last weekend’s win against Napoli did this column a favour and moved Genoa further towards safety. They’re now as high as 12th, 9 from the drop zone, and looking very much like being a Serie A team for another season.

Torino are still down among the dead men, just a point above Cagliari in 18th, and while they have stabilised and looked a better team under Davide Nicola, their results are still sketchy. Hard to beat, but not winning enough, and another draw here would make it five in a row.

Torino last won at home in July 2020, and that was against Genoa, who were then coached by Nicola. It makes for a tempting headline, but I still think that Genoa are the likelier winners here, look a decent bet at 4.47/2 for the win, and a standout one with a half goal start at closer than they should be to odds against.

Inzaghi can outwit Conte

Inter v Lazio
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Inter’s home game against Lazio brings a big Serie A weekend to a close on Sunday night, and this looks a massive game for Antonio Conte’s team. They were frustrated to go out of the Coppa Italia on Tuesday night, and know now that all of their attention must be on taking the Scudetto away from Juventus.

Lazio are unbeaten in three of their last four Serie A games against Inter, and are the only unbeaten side in Serie A in 2021, having won 6 and drawn 1 of their calendar year games so far. They have won more points than anyone in Serie A since January 1st, and I’m interested to see them trading at 4.77/2 for the win.

Inter are in good form themselves, having kept four consecutive clean sheets in the League, and have won their last seven Serie A games at San Siro.

Lazio’s form, though, and the fact that they have troubled Inter the last few times that they have played them, is beguiling. They’re certainly good enough to come here and win, but I’m happy to back them with a half a goal start at odds against. Simone Inzaghi may just be the best coach in Serie A, and that reputation could have soared to even greater heights come Sunday night.

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