Back Bruno again
West Ham vs Manchester United
Goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes to score anytime @ 13/8
Usually, if Manchester United do anything good in attack it comes through Bruno Fernandes. The Portuguese midfielder has scored seven times already this term, and is averaging 0.64 xG/avg match, so he continually gets chances, with most of them coming from the penalty spot. His price of 13/8 to score anytime looks too big to me given he is one of United’s main goal threats.
Carded: Fred to be booked @ 7/2
It was well documented in midweek that Fred was fortunate to stay on the pitch as long as he did against PSG, and that red card means he is out of United’s make-or-break game at RB Leipzig next week, so I see him playing here and Solskjaer rotating another midfielder in his place. Fred has seen yellow three times this season, getting booked 0.48 times per avg match, so the price available for him looks too big at 7/2.
Same Game Multi: Manchester United or Draw, BTTS, Over 2.5 goals and Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target @ 3.3512/5
Out of respect for what West Ham have done this season, I am going to take United to avoid defeat as opposed to winning this game. The Hammers have had great success against some of the league’s elite, and are a capable attacking team, so BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are two bets I like given what we have seen from United of late. To boost the price a bit more, I have added Bruno Fernandes to register a shot on target. He is averaging 1.64 shots on target per avg match this season.
Giroud the play if he starts
Chelsea vs Leeds
Goalscorer: Olivier Giroud to score anytime @ 11/10
It will be really interesting to see what Frank Lampard does with his striking situation this weekend, with Olivier Giroud making his claim for the start with a four-goal performance in the Champions League which included some excellent finishes. When he has been called upon, the Frenchman has looked very impressive, and if he is given the nod, I like his chances of scoring again.
Carded: Liam Cooper to be booked @ 7/2
Leeds’ captain has seen yellow in the last three Premier League games against Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Everton, with his season average being 0.43 yellows per avg match. This game could get stretched at some point, in which case he could be called upon to make a cynical foul.
Same Game Multi: Chelsea or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Timo Werner 1+ shot on target @ 2.43
Again, like the West Ham vs Man Utd game, I think Leeds deserve respect here, so I will add Chelsea or the draw rather than the straight up home win just for added security. Given the solid defence that Chelsea now possess, I don’t think we will be in for a high-scoring game. And to get the price closer to 6/4, I’ve thrown in Timo Werner to have a shot on target. The German is averaging 1.08 shots on target per avg match this season.
Kane to have a say in another NLD
Tottenham vs Arsenal
Goalscorer: Harry Kane to score anytime @ 11/10
Jose Mourinho has been coy this week, toying with the media – and Arsenal fans – about Harry Kane’s fitness. He is this talisman, and loves a North London derby so I expect him to start here, which would be huge for Spurs. Harry Kane has averaged 0.66 xG/avg match this season, an increase on his 0.44 from last season, so is getting on the end of more and better chances this term. His record against Arsenal speaks for itself, so to see him odds against to notch here is too good to turn down.
Carded: Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to be booked @ 13/5
Tottenham’s midfield enforcer usually looks like a walking yellow card when playing, but he has been booked just once in his 10 games this season. He may have been fortunate not to have seen more yellows though, conceding 1.77 fouls per avg match, and his fouls tend to be cynical. He can be a bit of a hot head as well at times, which could come to fruition in this usually feisty derby fixture. The last four meetings between these sides in the league have seen 8, 8, 5 and 7 yellow cards.
Same Game Multi: Tottenham or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Harry Kane 1+ shot on target @ 2.1211/10
I like Tottenham in this game, but given the negative approach likely to be taken by Arsenal in a bid to keep this tight and play on the counter attack, I wouldn’t surprised to see this finish in a draw either, so Tottenham or draw is added to the cart. We aren’t likely to see fireworks on the goals front, so under 3.5 goals is added, and so is Kane to have a shot on target. The Englishman has averaged 1.49 shots on target per avg match, so should test Bernd Leno.