# Roobet Crash – Statistical Analysis & Strategy

DISCLAIMER: I am not saying this is 100% the way or that it will weight your pockets down overnight or anything of the sort. This method is a long term method, which should be exponential given certain conditions that I will list later. Don’t gamble what you can’t afford to lose and just generally be smart and calculated.

Hello everyone!

With the recent surge of users on Roobet, especially the crash game; I keep seeing many Reddit posts about whether there’s a strategy of some sort. I haven’t seen any definite answers to this which pushed me to give an answer to this. I am a Computer Science student and I’ve made a program that compiles the results and gives you an idea of different strategies and numbers.

A few definitions for the purpose of my research.

Instaloss: Any number between 1.00 and 1.04.

Cooldown: Waiting for an Instaloss to occur.

Bait: Numbers that incite you to wager higher.

Anomaly: Disproportionately huge number.

So the first thing to understand, there is some degree of rigging. What I mean is how the computer decides when to stop climbing. This mainly functions with how much money the “computer” gains and how much it loses by giving it to players. This is one of the factors how it decides by how much that multiplier will increase.

So IN GENERAL, if the computer gave out a decent amount of money where almost all the players are consistently winning, you can expect an Instaloss any time soon. The computer simply has to take some money from the players to balance things out.

Knowing that

3 SITUATIONS TO BE CAREFUL OF:

• If There’s consistent wins in a row for almost all players EXPECT AN Instaloss sometime soon.

• If everyone cashed out and the number keeps rising to an ANOMALY level, do not even consider that number as legitimate. Since everyone cashed, out that number has no meaning, this is purely bait.

• If everyone cashed out and you see those 1 or 2 guys with 2\$ bets watching that number going over x50, this is also also BAIT. The computer is essentially saying “hey guys see how these 2 are getting rewarded for waiting? Should’ve held longer”. The reward the computer gives to these 2 guys outweighs completely what it will take from everyone else, so it can afford to reward those 2 people

To conclude on that topic , PAY ATTENTION to what is being bet and what is being won/lost by other players, and also pay attention to when the last time an Instaloss occured.

BEFORE I POST ANY NUMBERS HERE ARE SOME THINGS YOU GUYS MIGHT BRING UP.

• If the game is rigged are those statistics even worth anything? Well, excellent question, here’s the thing. Being that the way the computer decides what the multiplier will, that purely depends of the behavior of the people waging. The chance of one room betting DRASTICALLY differently from another room are extremely low. This means that the data that will be presented is based partly on statistical analysis of the numbers that come out mixed with the behavior of the people playing. So that means the statistics to give a good insight on how to play the safest long term game.

• How do I avoid or save myself from the situations you mentioned above? For number 1, simply don’t bet, and hold out until an instaloss occurs, often 2 instalosses can occur in a row, so wait out one more until you keep betting. Basically playing Cooldown. For number 2, it’s simple ignore the fact that 600x just happens and don’t let that excite you or get to your head. Number 3 is simply being observant of what people made, and generally accepting the next bet at a lower multiplier than the average you’ve observed for that game.

Here’s some findings.

Instloss rate between 1.00 to 1.04 is: 3.7%

Chance to hit between 1.05 to 1.15 is: 7.9%

Chance to hit between 1.16 to 1.25 is: 5.6%

Chance to hit between 1.26 to 1.35 is: 6.6%

Chance to hit between 1.36 to 1.45 is: 3.5%

Chance to hit between 1.46 to 1.55 is: 3.4%

Chance to hit between 1.56 to 1.65 is: 4%

Chance to hit between 1.66 to 1.75 is: 3.2%

Chance to hit between 1.76 to 1.85 is: 3.6%

Chance to hit between 1.86 to 1.95 is: 2.1%

Chance to hit between 1.96 to 2.05 is: 1.6%

Chance to hit between 2.06 to 2.15 is: 2.1%

Chance to hit between 2.16 to 2.25 is: 1.7%

Chance to hit between 2.26 to 2.35 is: 1.7%

Chance to hit between 2.36 to 2.45 is: 1.2%

Chance to hit between 2.46 to 2.55 is: 1.5%

Chance to hit between 2.56 to 2.65 is: 1.7%

Chance to hit between 2.66 to 2.75 is: 1.1%

Chance to hit 1.01 and over: 95.4%. On loss to make money back, you need to win 100 bets in a row at that rate(0% chance) or you x100 your next stake.

Chance to hit 1.05 and over: 91.7%. On loss to make money back, you need to win 20 bets in a row at that rate(18% chance) or you x20 stake your next stake.

These numbers are based on over 1000 results. THE REST OF THE % OF NUMBERS are anything over 2.75, however those are so risky that I did not included them because the point of the strategy will be slow and steady exponential growth, we ignore any higher values.

**NOTE SPECIFIC TO THE 1.00 TO 1.04 RANGE (IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND):**My data does show that this occurs around 3.7% of the time, however what this specific number doesn’t show is that Instalosses can occur twice or three times in a row and that’s where you can easily get cleaned. The chance of 2 Instalosses occuring from a statistical point of view are under 0.02%. However they seem to happen a lot more than 0.02%, this is where the game is rigged and how the computer gets back some of the money.

So what’s the strategy?

So in my numbers I included 2 lines of the IMPORTANT data that you will actually use to decide on your bets, the rest will be posted on discord. So let’s say you picked 1.05. That will be what you will ALWAYS hit.

Okay, how much do I bet?

This depends of how much you’re playing with, but being that this is a slow and steady long term strategy your bet will depend of how much you’re playing with. Let’s say you have a 50\$ stack and you wanna do either 0.50\$ or 1.00\$ bets.

Let’s say you are betting 1\$ @ 1.05 with 92% winrate. Now this 92% winrate is STATISTICAL it does not put into account the 3 before mentioned factors because I don’t know/don’t have the statistics on what decision the computer makes, it’s overly complex. So the more you respect and pay attention to the 3 situations i described above above, the closer you are to that 92%. If you lose you want to make that money back. So for the 1.05 rate, you have 2 choices to make that money back.

• 1: You need to win the next 20 bets at 1.05 with that same bet to make your loss back with a 18% chance of that happening.

• 2: Your next bet has to be x20 the last one at 1.05 and you only need to win once with that 92% winrate.

Obviously in this situation the 2nd choice is better, but for betting at higher multipliers the former might be better. This is because if you’re playing at 1.50 and you lose, you only need to win 2 times with the same bet at 1.50 or you only have to x2 your stake and win 1.50. The chances for these are obviously different from 1.05, but it’s riskier overall to play at 1.50.

The amount you bet is roughly making sure that, if you lose, you can afford to multiply that bet to make back your money. If you’re playing with 15\$ at 1.05, with 1\$ bets. You don’t have the money to x20 your next bet. If you can’t afford the multiplier, this means you’re betting way too high for the size of your stack. LOWER YOUR BET. So for 15\$, 0.25\$ bets are a good choice. Example, your stack is 15\$ and you’re making 1\$ bets @ 1.05. So if you lose, you need to x20 your bet to get back your money. That means you need to bet 20\$ which you don’t have

Okay, where’s the exponential part?

Now, if you’re betting the same 1\$ in our hypothetical situation, your gains are obviously linear because you’re making x1.05 only EVERY WIN. So what do you do? Depending of your risk taking ability you wanna increase your bet by a mere 1 to 5% per win. I usually chose 1 or 2 cents increase per win, so my 5% gain every time is slightly increasing. Okay but this will take forever. Doing it this way is exponential, if you know what an exponential graph looks like, the first 100 values with this situation are very low, and then it starts sharply increasing. Why the small increases tho, why not double my bet every time? The reason you don’t do sharp increases in your bets is because when you lose, you want to multiply your next bet depending at what rate you’re playing, if you increase your bet amount too fast, you will not be able to stomach that multiplier, it will be bigger than what you actually have in your stack. This is the best way to get cleared out in 2-3 consistent Instalosses.

How do I avoid an instaloss?

**The instaloss is the single most crippling thing that can happen. **Try your best to avoid these as much as possible, they’re extremely costly. PAY attention to when the last one happened, if one hasn’t occured in a while, I suggest you don’t bet at all for the next few rounds. Pay attention to what is being bet, won and loss. I usually wait until an Instaloss occurs and one more round after that instaloss incase 2 in a row occur. Once those pass I feel safer to go back to betting.

At 1.05, winning 20 bets in a row is a 18% chance. 10 bets in a row is a 39% chance. 5 bets in a row is a 62% chance. Keep this in mind, the longer you’re hot streaking the more it is likely that you will eventually lose, so win 3-4 bets and stop, assess situation, then make a decision again.

To summarize/TLDR:

• Pay attention to wins/losses of others

• Ignore big numbers when everyone cashed out.

• PAY ATTENTION TO WHEN THE LAST INSTALOSS OCCURED.

• Don’t get baited by the rewards of those people with small bets that are x300.

• DO NOT DEVIATE WITH ONE TIME RISKY BETS, THIS IS HOW YOU RUIN YOUR EXPONENTIAL CURVE.

• PATIENCE PATIENCE, I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH.

• BIGGER STACK = BIGGER BETS = BIGGER EARNINGS FOR A GIVEN MULTIPLIER.

Thanks for reading guys! Hope you all take something from this and make a buck, with the given numbers and theory, make your educated decisions and win!