Presidential debates props

The first presidential debate isn’t for a couple weeks but there seems to be solid value on some of these debate props. Like… really solid value. I’m sure most of these have low limits, but is there some other catch that I’m not seeing? The book is reasonably reputable so I don’t think they’re trying to scam folks or anything, beyond the usual tactics anyway (ie. not having an end date, etc).

Here are some props that seem pretty compelling:


  • Will Joe Biden participate in all three debates? – Yes +155 — Is it normal for presidential candidates to withdraw from the debates? Pelosi suggested it but Biden shot it down pretty quickly. We did see the first debate’s university withdraw, but a different university stepped up in their place quickly. So I have to imagine the only way this doesn’t go through is if a debate gets cancelled at the last minute due to covid or either Biden or Trump come down with covid at the last minute.

  • Will Joe Biden participate in the first debate? – Yes -250 — Same reasons above, pretty much just one of Biden or Trump getting covid and thus having to cancel seems like the only way this isn’t a lock

  • First debate: Will Donald Trump say ‘Sleepy Joe’? – Yes +250 — Trump just said this at his rally in Nevada on Saturday. Sure, there’s a difference between a rally with supporters and a debate with the man he’s talking about himself, but could easily see this hitting if Trump gets fired up talking about Biden’s woes.

  • First debate: Will Joe Biden say ‘Very Fine People’? – Yes +120 — Biden’s received a bit of flak over this since what he’s referencing has been kind of a myth, but he continues to say it, at the DNC and then in Kenosha. If his campaign wants him to just stick to things that can be fact checked then he might not say this, but similar to Sleepy Joe I could see him leaning on it if he gets fired up

  • Will J Biden test positive for COVID-19 before Sept 19 2020? – No -220 — This isn’t debate-related but I wanted to include it nonetheless since with all the safety precautions the campaigns are taking and the relatively soon deadline this seems like fantastic value. Since it’s “J Biden” and not “Joe Biden” I assume this leaves open the possibility of a loss if Jill were to contract it, and she is going on a tour this week. But it takes time for covid to incubate so even if she were to contract it this week I doubt this would be even known prior to the 19th, let alone revealed.


Aside from the props above here are some others that could be good value depending on which side you lean. They all pertain to the first debate. I imagine the book will be very strict on the wording (ie. “Chinese” probably won’t count when pertaining to the China prop, “racism” won’t go for “racist,” etc).

  • How many times will Donald Trump say ‘China’? – O/U 6.5 -120 each

  • How many times will Donald Trump say ‘Antifa’? – O/U 4.5 -120 each

  • How many times will Donald Trump say ‘Law and Order’? – O/U 3.5 -120 each

  • How many times will Donald Trump say ‘Obama’? – O/U 3.5 -120 each

  • How many times will Joe Biden say ‘China’? – O/U 2.5 -120 each

  • How many times will Donald Trump say ‘Portland’? – o2.5 -280, u2.5 +190

  • How many times will Donald Trump say ‘Seattle’? – o1.5 +150, u1.5 -200

  • How many times will Joe Biden say ‘Q’ or ‘Qanon’? – o1.5 -250, u1.5 +170

  • How many times will Joe Biden say ‘Antifa’? – o1.5 +200, u1.5 -300

  • Will Donald Trump say ‘Qanon’? – Yes +250, No -400

  • Will Joe Biden call Donald Trump a ‘racist’? – Yes +170, No -250

  • Will Joe Biden say ‘Fact Check’? – Yes -160, No +120

Thoughts?

Latest posts