Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol’s predictions for every match of GW4

Blues to scrape past Palace

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, 12:30

Four points from three games isn’t what many were expected from this new look Chelsea team, and I have to say, I have been extremely underwhelmed with what I have seen from the Blues. They have averaged just 1.1 non-pen xGF per game since the season started, and were minutes away from a defeat at West Brom last weekend, as defensive lapses remain rife. Frank Lampard is still searching for his best XI, and he better land on it sooner rather than later. Crystal Palace lost for the first time this season at home to Everton, and though they were harshly done by with the penalty, Palace created little (xG: CRY 0.7 – 2.4 EVE). Nonetheless, we have see Roy Hodgson’s side trouble Southampton and Manchester United on the counter attack this term, so will fancy their chances here. Infogol thinks Chelsea will get the win here (67%), with goals likely (56% O2.5) given Chelsea’s attacking capabilities and defensive short-comings – 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.4]

Everton to win again

Everton vs Brighton
Saturday, 15:00

Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton have been excellent so far this season, winning three out of three and impressing greatly, especially in attack (2.5 xGF pg). Dominic Calvert-Lewin is red hot, netting five times in three matches, and it really wouldn’t be a surprise to see him score again. Like Everton, Brighton have been quietly impressive, and are unfortunate to have picked up only one win having been the better team against Chelsea (non-pen xG: BHA 1.3 – 0.6 CHE) and against Manchester United last weekend (non-pen xG: BHA 2.1 – 1.1 MUN). The clinical nature of their opponents is the reason they have just the one win, and they could face a similarly clinical opponent here that are full of confidence. We think Everton will get the win (49%), though in contradiction to the market, the model thinks this will be low-scoring (55% U2.5, 52% BTTS ‘no’) – 2-0.

Back the 2-0 @ [10.0]

City to edge to bounce back win

Leeds vs Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30

Leeds have made their mark on the Premier League already, having won their last two matches after a 4-3 loss at Anfield. Marcelo Bielsa’s side have been incredibly clinical this season, as I discussed in detail on this weeks Football…Only Bettor, scoring eight times from chances equating to 3.1 xGF, managing to create just one ‘big chance’ (>35%). They have to improve upon that, but are capable of pushing City close with their high-pressing approach. I don’t think anyone was expecting City to lose 5-2 at home to Leicester last weekend, but it appears as though injuries have caught up with them. Pep’s side are missing their two recognised strikers which is a major blow, and they need to be smarter defensively, as they were a shambles last weekend giving away three penalties. We think they will edge this one (65%), but it will be far from convincing – 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ [10.0]

All square at St James’

Newcastle vs Burnley
Saturday, 20:00

Newcastle were given a get out of jail free card last weekend, as they were gifted a penalty in the last minute of their game against Tottenham to pick up an undeserved point (xG: TOT 3.5 – 1.1 NEW). Defensively they continue to look vulnerable, having allowed an average of 2.2 xGA pg, they need to improve. Burnley were beaten by Southampton in a cagey affair at Turf Moor, but they come into this game with a few players back fit. They always seem to be underestimated by the market, and that is surprising for Infogol, as they performed like a mid-table team last season. We expect the Clarets to avoid defeat here (66% BUR or Draw) – 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ [7.0]

Leicester to edge thriller

Leicester vs West Ham
Sunday, 12:00

Leicester made a statement with their victory last weekend, as they romped to a 5-2 success at Manchester City to make it three wins from three. They have been excellent so far, and have won an incredible five penalties so far – none of which have been awarded for a handball. Averaging 2.4 xGF pg, they are a potent side, but are gettable defensively, having conceded twice in each of their last two games. West Ham were also emphatic winners at home to Wolves last weekend, shocking everyone by winning 4-0 in a comfortable and deserved fashion (xG: WHU 2.7 – 0.6 WOL). That followed an unfortunate defeat at Arsenal after a good performance (xG: ARS 1.3 – 2.3 WHU), so there are signs that the Hammers are clicking, especially in attack. The Foxes are taken to prevail here (60%), but we should see goals (62% O2.5, 58% BTTS) – 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [14.5]

No respite for Baggies

Southampton vs West Brom
Sunday, 12:00

Southampton got their first win of the season last weekend by beating Burnley in a dull affair, but it was a win that will likely give them plenty of confidence heading into this match. That success followed a 5-2 defeat at home to Tottenham, but even in that game, Southampton looked menacing in attack. West Brom blew a golden opportunity to pick up their first win against Chelsea, conceding three second half goals to draw 3-3. They were clinical in the first half, but non-existent in the second, looking as vulnerable as they did in gameweeks one and two. The Baggies have allowed 3.1 xGA per game so far this season, so Southampton should be able to create plenty and are fancied to win by the model (51% SOU). Given West Brom’s vulnerability, goals are expected (51% O2.5, 53% BTTS) – 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [16.0]

Low-scoring Gunners win

Arsenal vs Sheffield United
Sunday, 14:00

Arsenal’s comfortable win over Fulham is looking less and less impressive as the season progresses, given Fulham’s shortcomings. The Gunners have underwhelmed in my opinion, being fortunate to beat West Ham before being well-beaten by Liverpool. They continue to struggle to carve out opportunities, having managed created 24 chances in three league games this season. Sheffield United have been backed into third favourites for the drop, but that looks like an overreaction to me. Performances against Villa and Leeds haven’t been bad at all, especially defensively, and they can frustrate Arsenal here. Let’s not forget that they conceded only 39 times in 38 games last season, and went unbeaten against the Gunners (1-0, 1-1). Having said all of that, the model makes Arsenal 52% favourites to win this one, though we are not expecting a blowout (55% U2.5, 53% BTTS ‘no’) – 1-0.

Back the 1-0 @ [6.4]

Wolves to add to Fulham woes

Wolves vs Fulham
Sunday, 14:00

Wolves have been uncharacteristically poor in their last two matches, conceding seven goals against Manchester City and West Ham and allowing 4.9 xGA. I suspect that they will be better this weekend, and Fulham are a great opponent for them to get back on track. Scott Parker’s side have been tremendously poor defensively across their three games, conceding 10 times, but they have been equally as bad in attack (0.9 xGF pg). It could well be a long season for the Cottagers, and the model gives Wolves a whopping 72% chance of inflicting another defeat on Fulham, though few goals are expected (53% U2.5, 65% BTTS ‘no’) – 2-0.

Back the 2-0 @ [7.0]

Long week to take its toll on Spurs

Manchester United vs Tottenham
Sunday, 16:30

Manchester United have been far from convincing so far this season, getting comfortably beaten by Crystal Palace before needing a very late, controversial penalty to get past Brighton. They have been second best in both based on xG, but will be better for the games after having no pre-season and finishing 19/20 late. Defensively they have looked poor, but in attack they boast obvious threats. Tottenham have been dealt a tough hand with the fixture list to start the season, with this being their fourth game in a week. They were extremely unfortunate to only draw at home to Newcastle last weekend, but it was the second game in a row that they did create plenty of opportunities after hitting Southampton for five (xG: SOU 2.2 – 2.5 TOT). Jose Mourinho’s side did look vulnerable in their games against Everton and the Saints though, and could be cooked coming into this after a Thursday night Europa League clash. The Infogol model likes Man Utd’s chances of getting a second win of the season on Sunday (56%), with goals expected at Old Trafford (56% O2.5, 55% BTTS) – 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.6]

Champs to keep on winning

Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Sunday, 19:30

Aston Villa have looked really strong so far this season, but there are caveats to both of their victories. Sheffield United were reduced to 10-men after 12 minutes in their opener, and their second game was against Fulham, so this will be a big step up. After this game we will have a better idea about how good they are. Liverpool have had a tough opening schedule and come through with flying colours. They were exceptional against Arsenal on Monday night, being dominant from start to finish, and Jurgen Klopp’s men have since been backed into odds on favourites for the Premier League title. The Reds should prove too strong again on Sunday (61%), with goals expected as the Liverpool front line look electric (61% O2.5). We do think Villa will notch though (57% BTTS) – 1-3.

Back the 1-3 @ [12.0]

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