Clearly, those same groups of gamblers will be gambling on the election. There is a lot of incomplete information, there is a ton of statistical analysis, and especially in this election cycle, there is a lot of intuition used.
Most major polls give the Democratic nominee Joe Biden a big lead heading into Tuesday’s election, but those same polls were projecting a similar landslide win for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Last year’s results are influencing some in the poker world to bet on President Donald Trump to win the election.
In America, it’s not legal for any regulated site to accept wagers on the election. With time running out before the ballots are counted, a lot of poker players looking for some action on the election took to social media to book some last-minute bets against other gamblers.
High-stakes mixed games specialist Matt Glantz has been one of the most active election gamblers in the poker community. For most of the year, Glantz was betting as much as he could on Biden. Last week, however, as odds on Trump became more favorable, Glantz started looking to hedge some of his previous bets.
Time to start getting the risk down a bit. Hmu if you want Biden at mid pinny. min 5k.
— Matt Glantz (@MattGlantz) October 27, 2020
Even though the Pennsylvania native was betting a little bit on Trump, he still thinks Biden is the clear favorite to win the election. He just couldn’t resist betting against Biden at -200.
“I think I am giving it away, but gotta ring the register on it,” he tweeted at Kyle Julius.
I think you are right. I know Biden is 2-1 favorite on betting markets. I must be missing something. It looks like Trump is going to win easily. Biden couldn’t even remember Trumps name. https://t.co/30ULMrLSYI
— Doyle Brunson (@TexDolly) October 27, 2020
Looking for Biden -180 Even though Trump is gonna win probably
Must post / escrow / trust u
Min 5k bet please TY
— Jason Mercier (@JasonMercier) November 2, 2020
Businessman and high-stakes poker enthusiast Bill Perkins took it even one step further. He was looking to make a bet that Biden would win one of the most historically red states in the country’s history.
If I know you I will take a friendly bet if you lay me 2 to 1 that Biden wins the Great state of TEXAS. Get at me friends!!!
— Bill Perkins (Guy) (@bp22) November 1, 2020
Come watch me tout Trump as a -150 favorite https://t.co/uKqPodVYbt
— Brett Richey (@BrettRichey) October 27, 2020
In a follow-up tweet to WSOP bracelet winner Bryan Campanello, Richey elaborated that he believes polling is an outdated metric to handicapping political races. Combine that with the uniqueness of a Trump presidency and it was enough for Richey to make the statement.
“It’s hard to model for his strengths,” tweeted Richey. “His internal polling was much stronger than anyone else’s in 2016, why is everyone so sure the outsiders are right this time?”
While American markets can’t bet on the election, online sportsbook and daily fantasy sports giant DraftKings is offering a free-to-enter election contest with six-figures in prizes available. As in any daily fantasy-like contest, there is an edge to taking the contrarian side, but according to a Monday tweet, an overwhelming majority of the contest picked the underdog incumbent.
DK Election Pool Alert: With over 350K entries, a majority of people in every state besides Colorado predict that @realdonaldtrump will be the winner of tomorrow’s election. pic.twitter.com/zUF0uZZtwK
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 2, 2020
Perhaps nobody in the poker world has more riding on the election than Dan O’Brien, who tweeted Monday that he would be in bad shape financially if Trump gets another four years.
I’ve seen a lot of vague tweets that seem intended to be used as proof of having predicted the winner and forgotten if wrong. So I just want to state now that:
— Dan O’Brien (@DanOBrienPoker) November 2, 2020
Those outside the borders of the United States are allowed to bet on the outcome of the election. According to a recent report, most of those wagers have been placed on Biden.