Record: 40-41-3 (Streak WW) Down 2.01u over 84 KBO picks
Last: Doosan at NC +102 (NC won 5-0.)
Pick: Doosan +124 on Fanduel at NC, KBO Baseball, 4:30am ET
I wanted to start this write-up bragging about yesterday, but that’s in the past, and the gambling gods don’t like that. Instead let’s focus on what could be the last game of the KBO season. That makes me incredibly sad. Going into this game, I’ve made 368 KBO picks (52.2% wins), of which 84 were picks of the day. I never imagined circumstances that would lead me to daily breakdowns of Korean baseball, but I’ve enjoyed almost every minute of it.
Doosan hasn’t scored a run since the 7th inning of their huge game 3 win. They’ve managed just 9 hits over the last two games. Four of the hits were for extra bases, but Doosan just continues to strand runners again and again. Of course, it’s not like NC is knocking the cover off the ball, averaging fewer than 5 runs per game in the playoffs.
Doosan’s season hinges on the arm of Raul Alcantara. He had an amazing season with a 20-2 record, a 2.54 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He was not as sharp in his last start, however. In Game 1 of this series, he allowed 4 ER on 7 H with just 2 K in 5 IP. In his last start against KT, he pitched 7.2 really good innings (1 ER) before a walk and a single knocked him out of the game. His relievers allowed two more runs to score after he departed. The Bears desperately need that kind of performance in this one.
NC is turning to Drew Rucinski, whose regular season was almost as good as Alcantara. He posted a 19-5 record with a 3.05 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He only made it through 5.1 innings in Game 1 against Doosan, allowing 3 runs (1 ER) on 5 H with 3 BB and 4 K in 5.1 IP. In the must-win Game 4, Rucinski got called in from the bullpen for a 2.2 inning save where he was perfect with 4 K. I’m guessing that outing was a little more stressful than what his side throwing would have been that day, so it’s hard to say if it will impact him in this game.
NC is a solid favorite in this game, and why wouldn’t they be? They’ve shut out the Bears each of the last two games and the pitching matchup is a push at best. The over/under is 7.5 or 7 depending on the book you use. Under 7.5 is favored as is Over 7… go figure.
I’ve been really torn on what to recommend in this one. I again like Under 0.5 runs in the first inning (-132) even though the Game 1 matchup between these two pitchers produced a first inning run. But I think we’re going to see the first five innings go over 3.5 runs (-137) as it’s did the first three games of the series. Doosan bats can’t stay this silent.
When it’s all said and done, I’m swinging for the fences with what may be my last KBO pick (and it will be if I’m wrong). Give me the Doosan Bears on the moneyline (+124 on Fanduel) to send this to game 7. Alcantara is more than capable of twirling a gem and Doosan’s luck with runners on base has to turn. Rucinski may be feeling the effects of a high-intensity relief appearance just a couple days ago. Add it up, and I’m taking a chance on plus money.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck!
Edit: +125 no longer available on BetMGM, but +124 is on Fanduel.