The most important plays in any football game are the ones that result in a touchdown. For a player, finding the end zone can be the difference between winning and losing in the NFL and this type of betting prop is the latest craze for sports bettors trying to find an edge in NFL betting.
If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you know I’ve been sharing my weekly NFL touchdown scorer picks for a few seasons. Now, I’ve decided I want to post them on Odds Shark so the average bettor can see why I’ve made a particular pick, what the thought process is and why NFL TD scorer odds are what they are.
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NFL Touchdown Scorer Bets: Conference Championships
Each week from now until Super Bowl 55, I’ll be giving out my top NFL touchdown scorer bets for each playoff game of the postseason. With only two games this weekend, I’m providing my best bet for each team, rather than simply a best bet for the game.
My full slate of touchdown scorer picks and props for each contest can still be found on my Twitter page. If you prefer to simply bet on sides and totals for NFL games, I also have my six favorite picks in my weekly NFL best bets, The Pick Six.
All NFL touchdown scorer odds below are courtesy of the latest betting lines as of this writing:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Rob Gronkowski +240
Yes, this pick blew up in my face last week vs the Saints but I’m going back to the well and taking Rob Gronkowski to score a TD at +240. The tight end had his chances as QB Tom Brady looked for him twice in the red zone against New Orleans and both chances went right off his fingertips.
One of the reasons Gronk hasn’t gotten as many opportunities is his ability as a blocker, which was sorely needed facing the defensive lines of the Saints and Washington. The Packers defensive line isn’t on that level, meaning he can leak out more frequently for passes.
Another thing to consider is Gronkowski’s playoff pedigree. In 16 career playoff games, he has 12 touchdowns. That’s an insane TD rate per game and he scored more than once in only three of those games. For what it’s worth, Gronk also scored a touchdown in Week 6 when the Buccaneers hosted the Packers.
Green Bay Packers – Marquez Valdes-Scandling +210
When it comes to Packers receivers this season, there isn’t much value at the top with Davante Adams routinely at -160 or lower and emerging tight end Robert Tonyan at +110. Both are fantastic offensive weapons but have virtually no value for long-term betting in the touchdown scorer market. That’s why you need to look further down the Green Bay receiver depth chart to find some value and Marquez Valdes-Scandling caught my eye at +210.
The third-year pro exploded for the Packers this season with six touchdowns after catching only four in his previous two seasons combined. Why you want to bank on someone like MVS or, to a lesser extent, Allen Lazard is because so much defensive attention from the Bucs will be focused on Adams and Tonyan that Aaron Rodgers is going to have to spread it around to keep the defense off balance.
The Bucs’ strength is their ability to stop the run and neutralize any touchdown threat on the ground, which is why players like Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams or even Rodgers don’t interest me to score this week. Go with a receiver and bank on Rodgers having to air it out to his wideouts.
Buffalo Bills – Josh Allen +120
Josh Allen at plus money? AUTO-BET. As a rule of thumb when betting on TD scorers, I will only bet on players who have plus-money odds and Allen is typically at -110 or lower. Another rule of thumb I live by is to always bet on a team’s starting running back to score a TD if they’re at plus money. However, in this circumstance, there’s no question Allen is the best runner on the team and has a better shot to score than Devin Singletary or TJ Yeldon. Especially since he touches the ball on every offensive snap.
Fun Nugget: The Chiefs have only allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season. Guess how many of those were scored by quarterbacks? Answer: Seven.
Kansas City Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes +340
I know I’ll have my detractors who can’t wait to tell me how awful a pick this is, but I can’t not bet on Patrick Mahomes in this spot. The signal-caller has been lights-out rushing for touchdowns in playoff games – in six career postseason contests, he’s rushed for four touchdowns.
The Bills’ defensive weakness has been stopping the run and they allowed 21 rushing touchdowns this season. Quarterbacks rushed for seven of those scores.
Now, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire may be back for this game but that’s not enough to deter the Mahomes pick. The rookie back could be limited in his return to action while Darrel Williams has been handling the bulk of the carries but even he has only one rushing touchdown on the year.
Sore foot and coming back from concussion protocol aside, the Chiefs are going to need Mahomes to make plays with his legs and at +340, these are great odds for a QB who is routinely listed at +150 or lower.
How To Understand NFL Touchdown Scorer Odds
The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.
When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:
Lamar Jackson – Ravens -110
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Steelers +150
Mark Andrews – Ravens +250
Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is the player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Lamar Jackson. Based on Jackson’s implied odds from sportsbooks, Jackson has a 52.4 percent chance to score a touchdown.
Let’s say you think Lamar Jackson will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $110. If you make that bet and Jackson scores, your $110 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.
On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Jackson does. In this case, you decide to bet on Mark Andrews with the Ravens at +250. If you bet $100 on Andrews and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $350 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook would give you $250 in profit for your winning bet.