Since Week 2 of the NFL season, Russell Wilson had been entrenched as the favorite to win the 2020 NFL MVP.
Mahomes is now -195 to be selected the NFL MVP at Bovada, with Aaron Rodgers (+130), Josh Allen (+2000), Wilson (+5500) and Derrick Henry (+6000) trailing him.
Wilson’s fall from grace has been something to behold considering he was the odds-on -190 fave in early November.
Mahomes and the defending champion Chiefs occupy the top spot on the Super Bowl oddsboard with a price of +175, while Rodgers’ Packers are right behind them at +650. Wilson’s Seahawks come in at No. 7 at +1200 odds.
Who Is Favored to Win the NFL MVP Award?
Odds as of December 16 at Bovada
Wilson Has Lost All Momentum
Thanks to a 6-1 start, the Seahawks were on cruise control to start the season. Seattle has come back down to earth, however, and Wilson has cooled off in a big way in the process.
Seattle has gone 3-3 since, including a 17-12 home loss to the Giants as an 11-point favorite on December 6. The Seahawks are tied with the Rams for first place in the NFC West but look like a beatable team right now – something you couldn’t have said through the first couple of months of the season.
Regardless, Wilson’s MVP pace has clearly stalled. The Wisconsin product ranks second in touchdown passes (36) but he’s thrown 12 interceptions, a career high. Earlier in the year, it looked like Wilson was on the inside track to breaking Peyton Manning’s single-season touchdown record – that’s out the window now.
Mahomes Stumbles in Week 14
Mahomes had his worst game of the season against the Dolphins in a three-interception performance. The Texas Tech product still threw for 393 yards and two touchdowns, but his 33-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio is not nearly as eye-popping as the 31-2 number he sported last week.
Kansas City still managed to win the game, yet Mahomes’ MVP stock has taken a hit. Last week he looked like a lock at -450 to become MVP, but his odds tumbled to -195 in light of the Dolphins contest.
Mahomes still has a chance to breeze past 5,000 yards and the Chiefs could easily go 15-1, which would certainly help his MVP case. It doesn’t look like as much of a slam dunk for him at this point, though.
Rodgers Continues His Red-Hot Pace
Rodgers has led the Packers to the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a record of 10-3. In a year in which many were projecting a regression for No. 12 – and only months after the Packers drafted his successor in Jordan Love – Rodgers has looked like his old self through 12 games and deserves to be at the forefront of the MVP conversation.
The two-time MVP award winner, who leads the NFL in touchdown passes (39), is on pace to break his previous career high in TD scores (46), which in the process would also make him the all-time leader in TD passes by a Packers quarterback. Rodgers has only thrown four picks in 2020.
Rodgers has a shot at 50 touchdown passes right now, which would make it tough to argue whether he deserves the MVP or not. If he and the Packers can maintain the No. 1 seed in the NFC, it would be a huge boost.
Jackson is Well Out of the Running
There were plenty of questions surrounding Jackson when he entered the 2018 NFL Draft, but the former Heisman Trophy winner answered all of those last year to become the 17th signal-caller since 2000 to become MVP. Marshall Faulk (2000, 2001), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) are the non-quarterbacks to win the award in that span.
Just how much of a surprise was Jackson’s triumphant 2019 campaign? The Louisville product opened the year as a +4100 long shot to garner the bragging rights as the best player in the NFL. He ended the season with 36 touchdowns and 3,127 passing yards while throwing only six interceptions.
More impressively, Jackson broke Michael Vick’s record for most rushing yards in a single season by a quarterback, finishing with 1,206 yards on the ground and seven scores.
Jackson hasn’t been nearly as dominant in the 2020 campaign and he has now fallen off the oddsboard completely.
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How to Bet on NFL MVP Odds
Popular NFL bets include point spreads and totals (OVER/UNDER). For those looking for something different, you can wager on which player will be named MVP. As football season progresses, you’ll see the MVP action changing. To get in on the action, you can make a futures bet.
What is a Futures Bet?
Dak Prescott +200
Tom Brady +250
Patrick Mahomes +400
Lamar Jackson +700
Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the fave here would be the player with the lowest odds. In this case it’s Dak Prescott.
Let’s say you have $55 to spend and you decide that you like Mahomes for MVP. A winning bet would give you a payout of $275 – your original $55 is returned along with your loot of $220. The higher the odds, the more money you’ll see. But, don’t bet on a +5000 MVP candidate in September in the hopes that you’ll make bank at the end of the regular season. Oddsmakers don’t only look at current performance when setting the odds. They also look at past performance, off-season activities and training camp.
With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Oddsmakers update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.
As soon as the Most Valuable Player trophy is awarded to the winner, sportsbooks will update the betting results and you can cash out your bet.