Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). It’s not a very large sample size, but it might be worth keeping an eye on. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.
The plays last week were:
|Off-the-board spread||6 pt||10 pt|
|San Francisco +3||Win|
|LA Chargers -7.5||Win|
Based on the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. Since u/blackjack_counter used Bovada’s closing lines, I will continue to use it. You can verify these lines at sbrodds.com.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
|6 pt||2017||+1½ thru +3||61-23||72.6%|
|6 pt||2018||+1½ thru +3||63-19||76.8%|
|6 pt||2019||+1½ thru +3||52-16||76.5%|
|6 pt||2020||+1½ thru +3||22-4||84.6%|
|6 pt||2017||-7½ thru -9||27-10||73.0%|
|6 pt||2018||-7½ thru -9||16-9||64.0%|
|6 pt||2019||-7½ thru -9||17-7||70.8%|
|6 pt||2020||-7½ thru -9||13-4||76.5%|
|10 pt||2017||+1½ thru +2½||22-1||95.7%|
|10 pt||2018||+1½ thru +2½||24-5||82.8%|
|10 pt||2019||+1½ thru +2½||23-4||85.2%|
|10 pt||2020||+1½ thru +2½||5-0||100.0%|
For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada’s closing line.
At midweek, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week was:
Las Vegas +3
Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
Atlanta as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points has been 6-2 as a 6pt teaser
Detroit as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points has been 9-2 as a 6pt teaser
Las Vegas as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points has been 8-4 as a 6pt teaser
Denver as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points has been 6-0 as a 6pt teaser
Chicago as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points has been 10-0 as a 6pt teaser
It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 24-3 for this season. That is a better win rate than Bovada’s final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.