Hello fellow players, thanks for the info.
I’ve abstracted shoe textures into three groups: fire, mids, and low
I’ve been in enough spots where the running count is > +30, and I win most of my hands, generally by pulling cards and not busting, and/or the dealer pulling cards and busting. I get more blackjacks during this time as well. It doesn’t get like this often, but often enough to keep me playing. These are the fire shoes.
Then there’s the middies. They’re break even, ‘playable’ shoes. You might win a bit, or you might lose a bit, and get the fun out of the game without too much worry. These numbers usually stay between -10 and +10.
Last is the low, so > -30 running count. These are the shoes I’ve pretty much lost most of my money in, either not having the control to step away or floor the bet, pushing all in into it etc. Yeah dealer never busts, always draws to a high hand, which basically means never busting. There’s no coincidence here I don’t think.
I usually find myself spending most of the time in the shoe, counting -.5 – +.5 true count, so like -10 to +10 usually. I used to try and “beat the numbers” and “make the play” by maybe alternating the bet to ‘try and hit that spot,’ which obviously is pretty useless. At this point, if I increase my bet in these neutral zones, it’ll be to just maybe do a camoflauge at the real game or not make it so obvious.
Like if I had it my way and the operators wouldn’t back off people who are starting to show signs of advantage, I would literally min bet until “true ones” so until the fraction lines up evenly and not just half ass like .5. It’s probably no surprise it takes a while to get to a true one anyway. So yeah I would just alternate the bet minimally to avoid detection during this part because am I right in thinking that in the neutral, middies zone, it’s literally dead random? Like if you happen to get a blackjack during a neutral count, or a nice QQ or any variant of a high hand, it’s just random right? It has nothing to do with the shoe composition at that time? It’s literally only when it lines up to 1 or greater that things start to be able to be predicted better?
So in conclusion during these neutral times which is most of the time, the outcomes are random and generally should favor the dealer?