Navy and SMU both look to rebound and stay in the hunt for the American Athletic Conference Championship. The Midshipmen lost their first conference game last week, as they fell to Houston 37-21.
The 22nd ranked Mustangs shot at an undefeated season ended last week, when they fell to #9 Cincinnati 42-13.
Navy Betting Preview
When you look at the stats for the Midshipmen you would have never guessed this team was 3-0 in conference play heading into last week’s game. They have allowed 140 more yards per game than they have gained.
Navy has also allowed their opponents to outscore them by an average margin of 15 points per game.
The Midshipmen’s three wins have come by a combined nine points. But, wins are wins and Navy isn’t going to complain about their 3-1 AAC record.
Quarterback Dalen Morris doesn’t get to throw the ball much in the run-first Navy offense. He has completed 23-of-39 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
Even the run game has struggled to get going for Navy this year, as they are averaging 186.3 yards per game on the ground and only 288.2 total yards.
The biggest issue for Navy this season has been on the defensive side of the ball. Opponents have scored an average of 34.7 ppg., and the Midshipmen are giving up 427 yards of total offense per game.
SMU Betting Preview
After a nice win over a ranked Memphis team, followed by an overtime victory at Tulane, the Mustangs lost their momentum in a defeat against Cincinnati. The Bearcats moved the ball at will, and the usually high scoring SMU offense could only put up 13 points.
Quarterback Shane Buechele is still having an outstanding season completing 142-of-221 passes for 1,926 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. Rashee Rice has been his go to target with 29 catches for 475 yards and two touchdowns.
The run game has provided a lot of balance for the Buechele-led offense. Ulysses Bentley IV has carried the ball 90 times for 546 yards and eight touchdowns. The Mustangs offense is averaging 37.7 points and 517.7 yards per game.
SMU’s defense has struggled at times, especially against the run. That could prove problematic this week against a Navy team that doesn’t throw it much. SMU is giving up 194.2 yards per game rushing.
Midshipmen/Mustangs Betting Lines
Mybookie has SMU as 12.5-point favorites. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Free Betting Pick
This Navy team just isn’t as good as their record would indicate. Winning ugly is really an understatement, as opponents have dominated total yardage against the Midshipmen.
Poor defense doesn’t look like it will stop this week as SMU should have a 150 yard advantage in total yards. The Midshipmen should be able to run the ball enough to keep this one close until the fourth quarter, where the more talented Mustangs pull away. I like SMU -12.5 and the over 58.8 in this one.
Navy 24, SMU 38
Spooky Express Free Pick: SMU -12.5 and Over 58.5