Most Accurate Poll From 2016 Has Biden Up 11 Points

Just a little over 24 hours ahead of polls closing Tuesday, Democratic candidate Joe Biden was a -190 favorite to be next President of the United States.

The final polls were coming out Monday. Among them, the USC Dornsife poll was the most accurate in 2016 and it has Biden up 11 points over the sitting President, GOP candidate Donald Trump.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by double digits nationally — 54% to 43% in the poll’s daily tracking, a margin that has remained almost unchanging since summer.

“So much has happened in the past 10 months of this year — impeachment, George Floyd’s murder, Black Lives Matter, fires and floods, RBG’s death, and yet the presidential trial heat has not changed,” veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who oversees that poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, wrote in an email. “The voters know the stakes, they care and they have been very consistent and constant in their vote since January.”

Biden’s favorability is much higher than the 2016 Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Yahoo News explains how the USC poll works:

The poll’s main measure of support for the candidates asks voters to use a 0-100 scale to give the probability that they’ll vote for either candidate as well as the probability that they’ll vote at all. A separate experimental question asks voters how they think their friends, neighbors and other members of their social circles will vote. That question yields a smaller Biden lead, 51% to 46%.

The difference between the results could reflect a reservoir of hidden Trump support that the regular poll question doesn’t pick up. The result also could reflect voters overestimating how much people they know support Trump, perhaps as a result of his unexpected victory in 2016.

The poll also found that Trump’s attempt to turn attention from the Covid 19 pandemic towards law and order failed miserably.

Early turnout thus far has been shattering records in new swing states like Texas and Georgia.

Republicans have a chance to catch up on Election Day however.

Trump has urged his supporters to avoid the mail and show up on election day, and about half the people in the poll who said they plan to vote Tuesday are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. Trump’s hopes lie in a surge from those voters.

– Gilbert Horowitz,

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