Miami vs UNC Picks and Odds

Caleb Love North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina head coach Roy Williams, right, greets Caleb Love (2) as he comes off the court against Pittsburgh during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • The Miami Hurricanes (7-11, 3-10 ACC) play the North Carolina Tar Heels (12-6, 7-4 ACC) on Monday, February 8th
  • The Tar Heels are coming off of a huge win over rival Duke, while the Hurricanes lost a heartbreaker to Virginia Tech last time out
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet below

The Miami Hurricanes and North Carolina Tar Heels will meet for the second time this season on Monday (Feb. 8th, 7pm ET) at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.

The Tar Heels have owed this series as of late winning the last five meetings between the schools including a 67-65 win earlier this season on Miami’s home floor. The current odds are showing North Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite in this matchup.

Miami vs North Carolina Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Hurricanes +10.5 (-114) +490 Over 139.5 (-114)
North Carolina Tar Heels -10.5 (-106) -670 Under 139.5 (-106)

Odds as of Feb 7th at FanDuel.

This season has not gone exactly as planned for the Hurricanes who have only won one of their last six games. Their 3-10 conference record is good for third worst in the ACC.

Things are going a bit better for the Tar Heels as they have only lost two games of the nine they have played in 2021. They are currently only one game out of third place in the conference with another shot at the leaders coming. Their next three games come against teams ahead of them in the standings.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

Miami Is Reeling

The Hurricanes season seemed to go downhill the moment they lost guard Chris Lykes to injury in early December. They rallied to beat Purdue and then promptly lost five of their next six games sending their season into a tailspin. They will get a huge boost if he is able to return for the matchup with the Tar Heels. He was practicing ahead of their last game with Virginia Tech and Miami certainly could have used his leadership in that game.

The Hurricanes seemed to have turned a corner in February. They beat the Due Blue Devils 77-75 on the 1st and then took 16th ranked Virginia Tech to overtime in their last game. Miami could have easily won the game as it took a buzzer-beater three-pointer from the Hokies Hunter Cattoor just to get the game to overtime. The Hurricanes had three players score at least 18 points with Elijah Olaniyi and Isaiah Wong leading the way with 19 apiece.

North Carolina Is Hitting Their Stride

The Tar Heels were all but left for dead in 2020 when they finished off the calendar year by losing four of their last six games. There has been a shift of momentum in 2021 as North Carolina has seemed to find its way as a team winning seven of their last nine. Their freshmen have been playing with a ton of confidence and that was clear to anyone watching their last game against the hated Duke Blue Devils.

Caleb Love was the man of the hour Saturday night in Durham, North Carolina. He led all scorers with 25 points on a very efficient 9-for-16 shooting night which included 4-for-5 from behind the arc. Fellow freshman Day’Ron Shape made the most of his 17 minutes going for 11 points and nine rebounds in the win.

Best Betting Angle

This game, in terms of side, will come down to whether or not Chris Lykes plays or not. The total on the other hand is a completely different story. Offensively, North Carolina is playing better than they have all season. In their last three games, they are shooting 49.1% which is an upgrade over their season average of 44%. They also play at the 78th fastest pace in the country (adjusted for opponent).

The Hurricanes play at one of the slower paces in the country ranking 206 in possessions per 40 minutes (adjusted for opponent). They likely won’t be able to play as slow in this one as they should be playing from behind for most of the game. Like the Tar Heels, they have also seen a slight uptick in shooting percentage. Even if Lykes does not return we could still see a game where both teams produce offensively at a higher level than the books expect. The over is firmly in play.

The pick: Over 139.5 (-114)

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