March Madness Matchups: 7 vs 10 Betting History & Trends

The difference between a No. 10 seed and a No. 7 seed is often very small and is a spot in the March Madness bracket where you can usually find some good betting value.

Those No. 10 seeds had been moneymakers, going 11-5 against the spread and 9-7 straight up in the four NCAA Tournaments from 2009 through 2012. Though No. 7 seeds rebounded well the three years following, going 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS, the 2016 bracket belonged to the lower seed. No. 10 seeds went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in 2016 with Syracuse carrying that momentum all the way to the Elite Eight. But 2017 was a different story – inconsistency has been one constant in this matchup – with the No. 7 seed going 3-1 SU and ATS.

In 2018, No. 7 seeds again went 3-1 SU and ATS. It was the opposite story in 2019, however, as the No. 10 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS. The only 7 seed to win outright and cover was Wofford, as the Terriers beat Seton Hall 84-68 while easily covering as 3.5-point favorites.

This bracket position will typically see fading teams from power conferences that struggled down the stretch against surging mid-majors, which can result in a dangerous matchup for the higher seed. While that may not have exactly been the case in 2018 when the buzzer finally sounded in three of the four games that saw the No. 7 seed advance, digging a little deeper tells a slightly different story.

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Should you be betting the No. 7 or No. 10 seed?

Only one game between No. 7 and No. 10 seeds was settled by double-digit points in 2016, with Syracuse topping Dayton 70-51 as the lower seed. The other three games saw a combined scoring margin of 14 points between the winners and losers. Syracuse and VCU were the two No. 10 seeds to progress past the first round, but the Rams were bumped in the second round against Oklahoma. Temple was close to becoming the third, taking Iowa to overtime before the Hawkeyes hit a buzzer-beater to win.

The last No. 7 seed to close as an underdog was in 2015 when VCU lost to Ohio State, but the Rams covered their +3.5 closing spread. Wichita State and Michigan State both won as the No. 7 seed in 2015, but the Shockers failed to cover as they only beat Indiana by five points.

Michigan State would go on to make the Final Four, just the second No. 7 seed to do so after UConn accomplished the feat a year earlier. A No. 10 seed has never made it to the Final Four, with seven teams making it as far as the Elite Eight. Davidson made it there in 2008 as a No. 10, suffering a tough 59-57 loss to No. 1 seed Kansas despite a tremendous NCAA Tournament run by star guard Stephen Curry, who became a first-round draft pick by the Golden State Warriors the next year.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9

#7 Seed vs #10 Seed
#7 Seed Score #10 Seed Score Date ATS Win Win Seed ATS Seed
Wofford 84 Seton Hall 68 2019-03-21 Wofford 7 7
Nevada 61 Florida 70 2019-03-21 Florida 10 10
Cincinnati 72 Iowa 79 2019-03-22 Iowa 10 10
Louisville 76 Minnesota 86 2019-03-21 Minnesota 10 10
Rhode Island 83 Oklahoma 78 2018-03-15 Rhode Island 7 7
Nevada 87 Texas 83 2018-03-16 Nevada 7 7
Arkansas 62 Butler 79 2018-03-16 Butler 10 10
Texas A&M 73 Providence 69 2018-03-16 Texas A&M 7 7
South Carolina 93 Marquette 73 2017-03-17 South Carolina 7 7
Michigan 92 Oklahoma State 91 2017-03-17 Oklahoma State 7 10
Saint Mary’s 85 VCU 77 2017-03-17 Saint Mary’s 7 7
Dayton 58 Wichita State 64 2017-03-17 Dayton 10 7
Dayton 51 Syracuse 70 2016-03-18 Syracuse 10 10
Oregon State 67 VCU 75 2016-03-18 VCU 10 10
Wisconsin 47 Pittsburgh 43 2016-03-18 Wisconsin 7 7
Iowa 72 Temple 70 2016-03-18 Temple 7 10
Wichita State 81 Indiana 76 2015-03-20 Indiana 7 10
Michigan State 70 Georgia 63 2015-03-20 Michigan State 7 7
Iowa 83 Davidson 52 2015-03-20 Iowa 7 7
VCU 72 Ohio State 75 2015-03-19 VCU 10 7
New Mexico 53 Stanford 58 2014-03-21 Stanford 10 10
Texas 87 Arizona State 85 2014-03-20 PUSH 7
Connecticut 89 Saint Joseph’s 81 2014-03-20 Connecticut 7 7
Oregon 87 BYU 68 2014-03-20 Oregon 7 7
Notre Dame 58 Iowa State 76 2013-03-22 Iowa State 10 10
San Diego State 70 Oklahoma 55 2013-03-22 San Diego State 7 7
Illinois 57 Colorado 49 2013-03-22 Illinois 7 7
Creighton 67 Cincinnati 63 2013-03-22 Creighton 7 7
Notre Dame 63 Xavier 67 2012-03-16 Xavier 10 10
Saint Mary’s 69 Purdue 72 2012-03-16 Purdue 10 10
Florida 71 Virginia 45 2012-03-16 Florida 7 7
Gonzaga 77 West Virginia 54 2012-03-15 Gonzaga 7 7
Washington 68 Georgia 65 2011-03-18 Georgia 7 10
Texas A&M 50 Florida State 57 2011-03-18 Florida State 10 10
UCLA 78 Michigan State 76 2011-03-17 UCLA 7 7
Temple 66 Penn State 64 2011-03-17 Penn State 7 10
Oklahoma State 59 Georgia Tech 64 2010-03-19 Georgia Tech 10 10
Clemson 78 Missouri 86 2010-03-19 Missouri 10 10
Richmond 71 Saint Mary’s 80 2010-03-18 Saint Mary’s 10 10
BYU 99 Florida 92 2010-03-18 BYU 7 7
Boston College 55 USC 72 2009-03-20 USC 10 10
Clemson 59 Michigan 62 2009-03-19 Michigan 10 10
Texas 76 Minnesota 62 2009-03-19 Texas 7 7
California 71 Maryland 84 2009-03-19 Maryland 10 10
Butler 81 South Alabama 61 2008-03-21 Butler 7 7
Miami 78 Saint Mary’s 64 2008-03-21 Miami 7 7
Gonzaga 76 Davidson 82 2008-03-21 Davidson 10 10
West Virginia 75 Arizona 65 2008-03-20 West Virginia 7 7
Nevada 77 Creighton 71 2007-03-16 Nevada 7 7
UNLV 67 Georgia Tech 63 2007-03-16 UNLV 7 7
Indiana 70 Gonzaga 57 2007-03-15 Indiana 7 7
Boston College 84 Texas Tech 75 2007-03-15 Boston College 7 7
California 52 NC State 58 2006-03-17 NC State 10 10
Georgetown 54 Northern Iowa 49 2006-03-17 Georgetown 7 7
Marquette 85 Alabama 90 2006-03-16 Alabama 10 10
Wichita State 86 Seton Hall 66 2006-03-16 Wichita State 7 7
Southern Illinois 65 Saint Mary’s 56 2005-03-18 Southern Illinois 7 7
Charlotte 63 NC State 75 2005-03-18 NC State 10 10
West Virginia 63 Creighton 61 2005-03-17 West Virginia 7 7
Cincinnati 76 Iowa 64 2005-03-17 Cincinnati 7 7
Xavier 80 Louisville 70 2004-03-19 Xavier 7 7
Memphis 59 South Carolina 43 2004-03-19 Memphis 7 7
DePaul 76 Dayton 69 2004-03-18 DePaul 7 7
Michigan State 66 Nevada 72 2004-03-18 Nevada 10 10
Saint Joseph’s 63 Auburn 65 2003-03-21 Auburn 10 10
Indiana 67 Alabama 62 2003-03-21 Indiana 7 7
Michigan State 79 Colorado 64 2003-03-21 Michigan State 7 7
Memphis 71 Arizona State 84 2003-03-20 Arizona State 10 10
Xavier 70 Hawaii 58 2002-03-15 Xavier 7 7
NC State 69 Michigan State 58 2002-03-15 NC State 7 7
Oklahoma State 61 Kent State 69 2002-03-14 Kent State 10 10
Wake Forest 83 Pepperdine 74 2002-03-14 Wake Forest 7 7
Wake Forest 63 Butler 79 2001-03-16 Butler 10 10
Penn State 69 Providence 59 2001-03-16 Penn State 7 7
Iowa 69 Creighton 56 2001-03-15 Iowa 7 7
Arkansas 61 Georgetown 63 2001-03-15 Georgetown 10 10
Oregon 71 Seton Hall 72 2000-03-17 Seton Hall 10 10
Tulsa 89 UNLV 62 2000-03-17 Tulsa 7 7
Louisville 66 Gonzaga 77 2000-03-16 Gonzaga 10 10
Auburn 72 Creighton 69 2000-03-16 Auburn 7 7
Texas 54 Purdue 58 1999-03-12 Purdue 10 10
Washington 58 Miami (Ohio) 59 1999-03-12 Miami (Ohio) 10 10
Louisville 58 Creighton 62 1999-03-11 Creighton 10 10
Minnesota 63 Gonzaga 75 1999-03-11 Gonzaga 10 10
St. John’s 64 Detroit 66 1998-03-13 Detroit 10 10
Massachusetts 46 Saint Louis 51 1998-03-13 Saint Louis 10 10
Temple 52 West Virginia 82 1998-03-12 West Virginia 10 10
Indiana 94 Oklahoma 87 1998-03-12 Indiana 7 7
Marquette 59 Providence 81 1997-03-14 PUSH 10
Charlotte 79 Georgetown 67 1997-03-14 Charlotte 7 7
Texas 71 Wisconsin 58 1997-03-14 Texas 7 7
Xavier 80 Vanderbilt 68 1997-03-13 Xavier 7 7
Temple 61 Oklahoma 43 1996-03-15 Temple 7 7
New Mexico 69 Kansas State 48 1996-03-15 New Mexico 7 7
Maryland 79 Santa Clara 91 1996-03-15 Santa Clara 10 10
Michigan 76 Texas 80 1996-03-15 Texas 10 10

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