March Madness Matchups: 5 vs 12 Betting History & Trends

For the first time since the 2009 March Madness tournament, the No. 12 seeds went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in 2019 against the No. 5 seeds. No. 12 seeds, though, are known for being pesky in the opening round – in the last eight tournaments, marking 32 games, the No. 12 seed is 14-18 straight up.

Why should you bet on a No. 12 seed over the No. 5 Seed?

Over the last 12 tournaments, No. 12 seeds are an impressive 29-18-1 against the spread while also going 21-27 straight up. In 2019, three No. 12 seeds won SU with just Auburn winning as a favorite but failing to cover.

For college basketball bettors, it is not so much whether you are going to pick an upset involving a No. 12 seed every year, but how many you are picking. In 2017, Middle Tennessee took out Minnesota although the lower-seeded Blue Raiders closed as the betting favorites.

In 2016, two No. 12 seeds survived and advanced when Yale and Little Rock upset Baylor and Purdue, respectively.

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Will A 12 seed win March Madness?

No. 12 seeds seldom advance deep into the NCAA Tournament, with just one team making it as far as the Elite Eight (Missouri back in 2002). But out of 51 No. 12 seeds that have upset No. 5 seeds in the first round since the tourney field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 13 of them (25 percent) have followed that up with another victory. In 2019, Oregon advanced to the Sweet 16 before getting knocked off by eventual champion Virginia.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9

#5 Seed vs # 12 Seed
#5 Seed Score #12 Seed Score Date ATS Win Win Seed ATS Seed
Mississippi State 76 Liberty 80 2019-03-22 Liberty 12 12
Marquette 64 Murray State 83 2019-03-21 Murray State 12 12
Wisconsin 54 Oregon 72 2019-03-22 Oregon 12 12
Auburn 78 New Mexico State 77 2019-03-21 New Mexico State 5 12
West Virginia 85 Murray State 68 2018-03-16 West Virginia 5 5
Clemson 79 New Mexico State 68 2018-03-16 Clemson 5 5
Ohio State 81 South Dakota State 73 2018-03-15 South Dakota State 5 12
Kentucky 78 Davidson 73 2018-03-15 Kentucky 5 5
Minnesota 72 Middle Tennessee 81 2017-03-17 Middle Tennessee 12 12
Virginia 76 UNC Wilmington 71 2017-03-16 UNC Wilmington 5 12
Iowa State 84 Nevada 73 2017-03-16 Iowa State 5 5
Notre Dame 83 Princeton 71 2017-03-16 Notre Dame 5 5
Maryland 79 South Dakota State 74 2016-03-18 South Dakota State 5 12
Indiana 99 Chattanooga 74 2016-03-17 Indiana 5 5
Purdue 83 Little Rock 85 2016-03-17 Little Rock 12 12
Baylor 75 Yale 79 2016-03-17 Yale 12 12
Northern Iowa 71 Wyoming 54 2015-03-21 Northern Iowa 5 5
Utah 57 Stephen F. Austin 50 2015-03-20 Stephen F. Austin 5 5
West Virginia 68 Buffalo 62 2015-03-20 West Virginia 5 5
Arkansas 56 Wofford 53 2015-03-19 Arkansas 5 12
Virginia Commonwealth 75 Stephen F. Austin 77 2014-03-21 Stephen F. Austin 12 12
Oklahoma 75 North Dakota State 80 2014-03-20 North Dakota State 12 12
Saint Louis 83 North Carolina State 80 2014-03-20 PUSH 5
Cincinnati 57 Harvard 61 2014-03-20 Harvard 12 12
Wisconsin 46 Mississippi 57 2013-03-22 Mississippi 12 12
Virginia Commonwealth 88 Akron 42 2013-03-21 Virginia Commonwealth 5 5
UNLV 61 California 64 2013-03-21 California 12 12
Oklahoma State 55 Oregon 68 2013-03-21 Oregon 12 12
Temple 44 South Florida 58 2012-03-16 South Florida 12 12
Wichita State 59 Virginia Commonwealth 62 2012-03-15 Virginia Commonwealth 12 12
Vanderbilt 79 Harvard 70 2012-03-15 Vanderbilt 5 5
New Mexico 75 Long Beach State 68 2012-03-15 New Mexico 5 5
Arizona 77 Memphis 75 2011-03-18 Memphis 5 12
Kansas State 73 Utah State 68 2011-03-17 Kansas State 5 5
Vanderbilt 66 Richmond 69 2011-03-17 Richmond 12 12
West Virginia 84 Clemson 76 2011-03-17 West Virginia 5 5
Michigan State 70 New Mexico State 67 2010-03-19 New Mexico State 5 12
Texas A&M 69 Utah State 53 2010-03-19 Texas A&M 5 5
Temple 65 Cornell 78 2010-03-19 Cornell 12 12
Butler 77 Texas El Paso 59 2010-03-18 Butler 5 5
Florida State 59 Wisconsin 61 2009-03-20 Wisconsin 12 12
Utah 71 Arizona 84 2009-03-20 Arizona 12 12
Illinois 72 Western Kentucky 76 2009-03-19 Western Kentucky 12 12
Purdue 61 Northern Iowa 56 2009-03-19 Northern Iowa 5 12
Clemson 69 Villanova 75 2008-03-21 Villanova 12 12
Drake 99 Western Kentucky 101 2008-03-21 Western Kentucky 12 12
Notre Dame 68 George Mason 50 2008-03-20 Notre Dame 5 5
Michigan State 72 Temple 61 2008-03-20 Michigan State 5 5
USC 77 Arkansas 60 2007-03-16 USC 5 5
Virginia Tech 54 Illinois 52 2007-03-16 Illinois 5 12
Tennessee 121 Long Beach State 86 2007-03-16 Tennessee 5 5
Butler 57 Old Dominion 46 2007-03-15 Butler 5 5
Pittsburgh 79 Kent State 64 2006-03-17 Pittsburgh 5 5
Washington 75 Utah State 61 2006-03-16 Washington 5 5
Syracuse 58 Texas A&M 66 2006-03-16 Texas A&M 12 12
Nevada 79 Montana 87 2006-03-16 Montana 12 12
Michigan State 89 Old Dominion 81 2005-03-18 Michigan State 5 5
Georgia Tech 80 George Washington 68 2005-03-18 Georgia Tech 5 5
Villanova 55 New Mexico 47 2005-03-18 Villanova 5 5
Alabama 73 Wisc-Milwaukee 83 2005-03-17 Wisc-Milwaukee 12 12
Providence 58 Pacific 66 2004-03-19 Pacific 12 12
Illinois 72 Murray State 53 2004-03-19 Illinois 5 5
Syracuse 80 BYU 75 2004-03-18 Syracuse 5 5
Florida 60 Manhattan 75 2004-03-18 Manhattan 12 12
Mississippi State 46 Butler 47 2003-03-21 Butler 12 12
Notre Dame 70 Wisc-Milwaukee 69 2003-03-20 Wisc-Milwaukee 5 12
Wisconsin 81 Weber State 74 2003-03-20 Wisconsin 5 5
Connecticut 58 BYU 53 2003-03-20 Connecticut 5 5
Florida 82 Creighton 83 2002-03-15 Creighton 12 12
Miami 80 Missouri 93 2002-03-14 Missouri 12 12
Indiana 75 Utah 56 2002-03-14 Indiana 5 5
Marquette 69 Tulsa 71 2002-03-14 Tulsa 12 12
Virginia 85 Gonzaga 86 2001-03-16 Gonzaga 12 12
Syracuse 79 Hawaii 69 2001-03-16 Syracuse 5 5
Ohio State 68 Utah State 77 2001-03-15 Utah State 12 12
Cincinnati 84 BYU 59 2001-03-15 Cincinnati 5 5
Florida 69 Butler 68 2000-03-17 Butler 5 12
Connecticut 75 Utah State 67 2000-03-17 Utah State 5 12
Kentucky 85 St. Bonaventure 80 2000-03-16 St. Bonaventure 5 12
Texas 77 Indiana State 61 2000-03-16 Texas 5 5
Wisconsin 32 Missouri State 43 1999-03-12 Missouri State 12 12
Charlotte 81 Rhode Island 70 1999-03-12 Charlotte 5 5
UCLA 53 Detroit 56 1999-03-11 Detroit 12 12
Iowa 77 UAB 64 1999-03-11 Iowa 5 5
TCU 87 Florida State 96 1998-03-13 Florida State 12 12
Syracuse 63 Iona 61 1998-03-13 Iona 5 12
Princeton 69 UNLV 57 1998-03-12 Princeton 5 5
Illinois 64 South Alabama 51 1998-03-12 Illinois 5 5
Tulsa 81 Boston University 52 1997-03-14 Tulsa 5 5
Boston College 73 Valparaiso 66 1997-03-13 Valparaiso 5 12
Maryland 66 College of Charleston 75 1997-03-13 College of Charleston 12 12
California 55 Princeton 52 1997-03-13 PUSH 5
Memphis 63 Drexel 75 1996-03-14 Drexel 12 12
Mississippi State 58 Virginia Commonwealth 51 1996-03-14 Mississippi State 5 5
Iowa State 74 California 64 1996-03-14 Iowa State 5 5
Penn State 80 Arkansas 86 1996-03-14 Arkansas 12 12

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