For the first time since the 2009 March Madness tournament, the No. 12 seeds went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in 2019 against the No. 5 seeds. No. 12 seeds, though, are known for being pesky in the opening round – in the last eight tournaments, marking 32 games, the No. 12 seed is 14-18 straight up.
Why should you bet on a No. 12 seed over the No. 5 Seed?
Over the last 12 tournaments, No. 12 seeds are an impressive 29-18-1 against the spread while also going 21-27 straight up. In 2019, three No. 12 seeds won SU with just Auburn winning as a favorite but failing to cover.
For college basketball bettors, it is not so much whether you are going to pick an upset involving a No. 12 seed every year, but how many you are picking. In 2017, Middle Tennessee took out Minnesota although the lower-seeded Blue Raiders closed as the betting favorites.
In 2016, two No. 12 seeds survived and advanced when Yale and Little Rock upset Baylor and Purdue, respectively.
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Will A 12 seed win March Madness?
No. 12 seeds seldom advance deep into the NCAA Tournament, with just one team making it as far as the Elite Eight (Missouri back in 2002). But out of 51 No. 12 seeds that have upset No. 5 seeds in the first round since the tourney field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 13 of them (25 percent) have followed that up with another victory. In 2019, Oregon advanced to the Sweet 16 before getting knocked off by eventual champion Virginia.
Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9
| #5 Seed | Score | #12 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 76 | Liberty | 80 | 2019-03-22 | Liberty | 12 | 12 |
| Marquette | 64 | Murray State | 83 | 2019-03-21 | Murray State | 12 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 54 | Oregon | 72 | 2019-03-22 | Oregon | 12 | 12 |
| Auburn | 78 | New Mexico State | 77 | 2019-03-21 | New Mexico State | 5 | 12 |
| West Virginia | 85 | Murray State | 68 | 2018-03-16 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Clemson | 79 | New Mexico State | 68 | 2018-03-16 | Clemson | 5 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 81 | South Dakota State | 73 | 2018-03-15 | South Dakota State | 5 | 12 |
| Kentucky | 78 | Davidson | 73 | 2018-03-15 | Kentucky | 5 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 72 | Middle Tennessee | 81 | 2017-03-17 | Middle Tennessee | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia | 76 | UNC Wilmington | 71 | 2017-03-16 | UNC Wilmington | 5 | 12 |
| Iowa State | 84 | Nevada | 73 | 2017-03-16 | Iowa State | 5 | 5 |
| Notre Dame | 83 | Princeton | 71 | 2017-03-16 | Notre Dame | 5 | 5 |
| Maryland | 79 | South Dakota State | 74 | 2016-03-18 | South Dakota State | 5 | 12 |
| Indiana | 99 | Chattanooga | 74 | 2016-03-17 | Indiana | 5 | 5 |
| Purdue | 83 | Little Rock | 85 | 2016-03-17 | Little Rock | 12 | 12 |
| Baylor | 75 | Yale | 79 | 2016-03-17 | Yale | 12 | 12 |
| Northern Iowa | 71 | Wyoming | 54 | 2015-03-21 | Northern Iowa | 5 | 5 |
| Utah | 57 | Stephen F. Austin | 50 | 2015-03-20 | Stephen F. Austin | 5 | 5 |
| West Virginia | 68 | Buffalo | 62 | 2015-03-20 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Arkansas | 56 | Wofford | 53 | 2015-03-19 | Arkansas | 5 | 12 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 75 | Stephen F. Austin | 77 | 2014-03-21 | Stephen F. Austin | 12 | 12 |
| Oklahoma | 75 | North Dakota State | 80 | 2014-03-20 | North Dakota State | 12 | 12 |
| Saint Louis | 83 | North Carolina State | 80 | 2014-03-20 | PUSH | 5 | |
| Cincinnati | 57 | Harvard | 61 | 2014-03-20 | Harvard | 12 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 46 | Mississippi | 57 | 2013-03-22 | Mississippi | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 88 | Akron | 42 | 2013-03-21 | Virginia Commonwealth | 5 | 5 |
| UNLV | 61 | California | 64 | 2013-03-21 | California | 12 | 12 |
| Oklahoma State | 55 | Oregon | 68 | 2013-03-21 | Oregon | 12 | 12 |
| Temple | 44 | South Florida | 58 | 2012-03-16 | South Florida | 12 | 12 |
| Wichita State | 59 | Virginia Commonwealth | 62 | 2012-03-15 | Virginia Commonwealth | 12 | 12 |
| Vanderbilt | 79 | Harvard | 70 | 2012-03-15 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 5 |
| New Mexico | 75 | Long Beach State | 68 | 2012-03-15 | New Mexico | 5 | 5 |
| Arizona | 77 | Memphis | 75 | 2011-03-18 | Memphis | 5 | 12 |
| Kansas State | 73 | Utah State | 68 | 2011-03-17 | Kansas State | 5 | 5 |
| Vanderbilt | 66 | Richmond | 69 | 2011-03-17 | Richmond | 12 | 12 |
| West Virginia | 84 | Clemson | 76 | 2011-03-17 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | 70 | New Mexico State | 67 | 2010-03-19 | New Mexico State | 5 | 12 |
| Texas A&M | 69 | Utah State | 53 | 2010-03-19 | Texas A&M | 5 | 5 |
| Temple | 65 | Cornell | 78 | 2010-03-19 | Cornell | 12 | 12 |
| Butler | 77 | Texas El Paso | 59 | 2010-03-18 | Butler | 5 | 5 |
| Florida State | 59 | Wisconsin | 61 | 2009-03-20 | Wisconsin | 12 | 12 |
| Utah | 71 | Arizona | 84 | 2009-03-20 | Arizona | 12 | 12 |
| Illinois | 72 | Western Kentucky | 76 | 2009-03-19 | Western Kentucky | 12 | 12 |
| Purdue | 61 | Northern Iowa | 56 | 2009-03-19 | Northern Iowa | 5 | 12 |
| Clemson | 69 | Villanova | 75 | 2008-03-21 | Villanova | 12 | 12 |
| Drake | 99 | Western Kentucky | 101 | 2008-03-21 | Western Kentucky | 12 | 12 |
| Notre Dame | 68 | George Mason | 50 | 2008-03-20 | Notre Dame | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | 72 | Temple | 61 | 2008-03-20 | Michigan State | 5 | 5 |
| USC | 77 | Arkansas | 60 | 2007-03-16 | USC | 5 | 5 |
| Virginia Tech | 54 | Illinois | 52 | 2007-03-16 | Illinois | 5 | 12 |
| Tennessee | 121 | Long Beach State | 86 | 2007-03-16 | Tennessee | 5 | 5 |
| Butler | 57 | Old Dominion | 46 | 2007-03-15 | Butler | 5 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh | 79 | Kent State | 64 | 2006-03-17 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 5 |
| Washington | 75 | Utah State | 61 | 2006-03-16 | Washington | 5 | 5 |
| Syracuse | 58 | Texas A&M | 66 | 2006-03-16 | Texas A&M | 12 | 12 |
| Nevada | 79 | Montana | 87 | 2006-03-16 | Montana | 12 | 12 |
| Michigan State | 89 | Old Dominion | 81 | 2005-03-18 | Michigan State | 5 | 5 |
| Georgia Tech | 80 | George Washington | 68 | 2005-03-18 | Georgia Tech | 5 | 5 |
| Villanova | 55 | New Mexico | 47 | 2005-03-18 | Villanova | 5 | 5 |
| Alabama | 73 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 83 | 2005-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 12 | 12 |
| Providence | 58 | Pacific | 66 | 2004-03-19 | Pacific | 12 | 12 |
| Illinois | 72 | Murray State | 53 | 2004-03-19 | Illinois | 5 | 5 |
| Syracuse | 80 | BYU | 75 | 2004-03-18 | Syracuse | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 60 | Manhattan | 75 | 2004-03-18 | Manhattan | 12 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 46 | Butler | 47 | 2003-03-21 | Butler | 12 | 12 |
| Notre Dame | 70 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 69 | 2003-03-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 5 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 81 | Weber State | 74 | 2003-03-20 | Wisconsin | 5 | 5 |
| Connecticut | 58 | BYU | 53 | 2003-03-20 | Connecticut | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 82 | Creighton | 83 | 2002-03-15 | Creighton | 12 | 12 |
| Miami | 80 | Missouri | 93 | 2002-03-14 | Missouri | 12 | 12 |
| Indiana | 75 | Utah | 56 | 2002-03-14 | Indiana | 5 | 5 |
| Marquette | 69 | Tulsa | 71 | 2002-03-14 | Tulsa | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia | 85 | Gonzaga | 86 | 2001-03-16 | Gonzaga | 12 | 12 |
| Syracuse | 79 | Hawaii | 69 | 2001-03-16 | Syracuse | 5 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 68 | Utah State | 77 | 2001-03-15 | Utah State | 12 | 12 |
| Cincinnati | 84 | BYU | 59 | 2001-03-15 | Cincinnati | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 69 | Butler | 68 | 2000-03-17 | Butler | 5 | 12 |
| Connecticut | 75 | Utah State | 67 | 2000-03-17 | Utah State | 5 | 12 |
| Kentucky | 85 | St. Bonaventure | 80 | 2000-03-16 | St. Bonaventure | 5 | 12 |
| Texas | 77 | Indiana State | 61 | 2000-03-16 | Texas | 5 | 5 |
| Wisconsin | 32 | Missouri State | 43 | 1999-03-12 | Missouri State | 12 | 12 |
| Charlotte | 81 | Rhode Island | 70 | 1999-03-12 | Charlotte | 5 | 5 |
| UCLA | 53 | Detroit | 56 | 1999-03-11 | Detroit | 12 | 12 |
| Iowa | 77 | UAB | 64 | 1999-03-11 | Iowa | 5 | 5 |
| TCU | 87 | Florida State | 96 | 1998-03-13 | Florida State | 12 | 12 |
| Syracuse | 63 | Iona | 61 | 1998-03-13 | Iona | 5 | 12 |
| Princeton | 69 | UNLV | 57 | 1998-03-12 | Princeton | 5 | 5 |
| Illinois | 64 | South Alabama | 51 | 1998-03-12 | Illinois | 5 | 5 |
| Tulsa | 81 | Boston University | 52 | 1997-03-14 | Tulsa | 5 | 5 |
| Boston College | 73 | Valparaiso | 66 | 1997-03-13 | Valparaiso | 5 | 12 |
| Maryland | 66 | College of Charleston | 75 | 1997-03-13 | College of Charleston | 12 | 12 |
| California | 55 | Princeton | 52 | 1997-03-13 | PUSH | 5 | |
| Memphis | 63 | Drexel | 75 | 1996-03-14 | Drexel | 12 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 58 | Virginia Commonwealth | 51 | 1996-03-14 | Mississippi State | 5 | 5 |
| Iowa State | 74 | California | 64 | 1996-03-14 | Iowa State | 5 | 5 |
| Penn State | 80 | Arkansas | 86 | 1996-03-14 | Arkansas | 12 | 12 |
