Line Shopping The AFC Championship: Betting Value On Chiefs And Bills

  • Nearly every sportsbook offers betting odds on the AFC Championship game., but only a few understand line shopping.
  • When compared, winning margin odds can have a bettor winning $1500 rather than $870 on the same bet.

KANSAS CITY – With the 2021 AFC Title game featuring the reigning Super Bowl champion and potentially the AFC East leader for the next decade, the number of eyes on the football match will be outstanding. With this, the number of bets increases as well giving those betting on the NFL any way to get into the game.

However, one aspect that is often overlooked is line shopping on NFL games. Most look to get in their wager and not worry about it, but doing some research does a long way in finding the best value.

For the AFC Championship odds, it doesn’t matter if one is betting on the Kansas City Chiefs or the Buffalo Bills, odds will be available at legal betting sites.

Chiefs First Half Moneyline

  • BetOnline -150
  • BetRivers -155
  • FanDuel -156
  • Bovada -165
  • BetMGM -165

For those backing the Chiefs, the first half odds fluctuate from -150 to -165, which won’t mean too much for the one’s betting $10, but anything triple digits is sure to see big changes.

Using BetOnline for these NFL odds allows a player to risk only $450 to win back $300 in profit. If one was looking to win $300 at BetMGM with the exact same bet, they would have to risk $495.

One thing to keep in note however is that the Chiefs are not exactly a model of consistency this year in the first half. Since the bye week, the Chiefs have played eight games starting with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Chiefs First Half Results Since Bye Week

  • 10-3 Browns (W)
  • 14-24 Chargers (L)
  • 7-7 Falcons (P)
  • 14-9 Saints (W)
  • 14-10 Dolphins (W)
  • 9-10 Broncos (L)
  • 20-7 Buccaneers (W)
  • 14-17 Raiders (L)

With a record on the first half moneyline of 4-3-1, betting on the Super Bowl favored Chiefs don’t give much hope, especially when you factor in that the Buffalo Bills have led at the half in seven of their last eight games (since the bye week). In their one non-leading game, they were tied at the half.

So, line shopping on the Bills’ first half odds may find more value.

Bills First Half Moneyline

  • BetRivers +120
  • FanDuel +123
  • DraftKings +124
  • Bovada +125
  • BetMGM +130
  • BetOnline +130
  • MyBookie +135

Finding a longshot is probably the best way to shop lines. As the payout increases with each increased odds value, the incentive grows to take action. For the Bills’ 1H Odds, betting $300 at BetRivers would return only $360 in profit.

If someone betting on the AFC Championship game took the Bills’ odds at the half and they hit, the same $300 payout turns into a profit of $405.

However, the longshots can be best explained when looking at odds that really change in value.

Take the AFC winning margin bet for the Chiefs and Bills’ game. The Bills are underdogs but could pull off the victory. Most would believe that the Bills will only be able to outscore the Chiefs by less than a touchdown because of both team’s offensive prowess.

With this, the Bills’ margin of victory odds proves real value in NFL line shopping.

Odds Bills Win By 1-6

  • DraftKings +270
  • BetRivers +270
  • BetMGM +340
  • FanDuel +400
  • Bovada +400
  • MyBookie +400
  • BetOnline +500

To keep with the value of a $300 bet, one taking the DraftKings odds on the Bills versus the BetOnline Bills odds would not be happy when compared. Sure, the DraftKings player would take in a nice $870 profit.

But if they found the value of the bet first and made the same bet at BetOnline, the profit back would have been $1,500.

These are only a few examples of the value of line shopping NFL bets. Make sure to find the best betting odds before the AFC Championship kicks off at 6:40 p.m. ET.

News tags: AFC Championship | Buffalo Bills | Kansas City Chiefs | line shopping | NFL | NFL Playoffs | Super Bowl

Michael Molter

Michael began writing as an NBA content writer and has spent time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant. A graduate of both schools, he covers topics focused on legal sports betting, betting odds, and casino reviews. Michael likes to golf, play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching NBA games.

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