- A total of 11 games will be played on Sunday with spreads ranging from one point to a dozen.
- The odds that all of the NFL betting trends hit is slim but they can still be used to help place a bet.
ATLANTA – Though the start of the NFL betting season was hard to follow from the beginning, the teams have settled into their ways through the first quarter of the season.
COVID-19, the impact of no (or limited) fans, and even being able to read lips of the coaches have all modified the game somehow but with four games under each team’s belt, the NFL betting trends are slightly easier to read.
Betting trends should never be taken as the absolute truth; however, they can still help new and experienced NFL bettors find the right play on Sunday.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1) – 1:00 p.m.
This divisional game will certainly see some changes. No Cam Newton under center for the Panthers does set off old matchup betting trends but still one pops out – the Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing Atlanta.
Looking at Carolina this year, it tells a different story, as they have a 2-2 ATS record early in the season. Despite Atlanta having gone 0-2 ATS at home this year (with an 0-4 record), some might think they are due for a win.
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) @ New York Jets – 1:00 p.m.
The Jets are being seen as one of the worst teams in the league while the Cardinals are hoping to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015 and third time since 2010.
The Cardinals have been meeting their improved expectations, having gone 2-2 ATS early on. However, no matter how poorly the Jets play, NFL sportsbooks still can’t seem to get their number correct.
With an 0-4 record ATS, the Jets are one of four teams who have failed to cover at least one spread this season.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-12.5) – 1:00 p.m.
The Cincinnati Bengals may be one’s to shock the world according to NFL betting trends.
Though the Ravens are Super Bowl focused, the Bengals always give the Ravens some trouble at the books. With a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games played against the Ravens, don’t be surprised to see them hang in there.
The better bet though might be on Over for the Over-Under, which is set at 51 points. The Ravens are 4-1 on the under over their last five games but this matchup has seen the over hit in four of the last five played as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-5.5) – 1:00 p.m.
In this AFC South divisional battle, these teams will be playing for some respect and bragging rights. Sitting at 1-3 and 0-4 overall, respectively, these teams both have a lot to prove. Without their former head coach Bill O’Brien making the calls, betting trends may be useless.
Still, the Over on the total (54.5) may be the play again here. Houston has seen four of their last five hit the over and the same can be said for the Jaguars.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) – 1:00 p.m.
Another AFC divisional battle takes place in the West this time around when the Raiders visit Kansas City. Despite seeing a betting line of over 10 points, there is no reason to doubt the Chiefs (or Patrick Mahomes).
Sitting at 12-1 ATS over their last 13 games, 9-0 ATS over their last nine home games, and 13-0 SU over their last baker’s dozen matches, why would anybody run away from the Chiefs’ betting line?
The Raiders have covered four of their last six but when playing against KC, their ATS record slips to 1-4 over their last five meetings.
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) @ Washington Football Team – 1:00 p.m.
With a new quarterback at the helm, the Washington Football Team (WFT) will try their luck with Kyle Allen instead of Dwayne Haskins. While new quarterback play can alter the trends, one still seems to pop out better than others – the Over.
Set at 46.5 points, the Rams could find themselves scoring two-thirds of this just themselves. With a 5-2 over record during their last seven games, the Rams will face off against the WFT, who has seen the Over hit in six of their last seven.
In other words, there is no need to chase a road favorite.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) – 1:00 p.m.
This matchup is nearly impossible to judge. Not only have the Eagles been massively undershooting expectations, but these teams haven’t faced each other in over four years (September 2016). Philadelphia came away with a 34-3 blowout; however, this isn’t 2016.
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS over their last five games but help doesn’t come when looking at the Steelers ATS record, which is 2-4 over their last six games.
Betting the total may be a challenge as well, as the Steelers have seen the Under dominate in their games (8/11), while the Eagles generally play the Under on the road (5/7).
This may be one of those games to watch instead of bet on.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-9) – 4:05 p.m.
Coming off a loss against the Seahawks, the Dolphins haven’t looked as bad as a nine-point spread might suggest. The Niners are 2-4 ATS at home over their last six games and the Dolphins generally beat expectations, going 11-5 ATS over their last season’s worth of games.
Those who dive deep in NFL betting trends will find that Miami has seen the under hit in 10 of their last 14 games played in Week 5; however, this rather useless stat is negated by the fact that San Francisco has seen the over hit in four of their last five games played in Week 5.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Cleveland Browns – 4:25 p.m.
With both teams sitting at 3-1, this may end up being the NFL game of the week. Opening at one-point in favor of the Browns, this line will be all over the place at legal sports betting sites and apps.
Surprisingly, the Browns are 6-1 SU over their last seven home games while the Colts are 1-6 SU over their last seven road games. This may be the only trend that truly pops out in this matchup except for those looking to bet on the Colts.
Indianapolis has covered the spread over the Browns in eight of their last nine matchups ; however, this dates all the way back to 1999 and ends in 2017.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-8) – 4:25 p.m.
Despite being a divisional road dog, the Giants may not be the team to bet against here.
Dallas is 0-4 covering the spread in 2020 but this may look worse than it truly is. They failed to cover the spread by 2 points, 2 points, and 1.5 points in their first three games, respectively.
As for the Giants, Dallas had 100% had their number over the last few meetings, posting a 6-0 SU and ATS record against their NFC East opponent. Don’t overthink this one, bet the Cowboys to cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) – 8:20 p.m.
In the Sunday Night Football matchup, the surging Seahawks will take on the Vikings from their home field in Seattle.
The Seahawks are 4-0 on the year and against the spread, as oddsmakers have failed to adjust for the MVP that is Russell Wilson. The Vikings are not strangers to a winning mentality though and seven points is a lot to give in the NFL.
Still, the Vikings have covered only one of their last five games but this still rings in as a perfect trap game for Seattle.
Instead, consider taking the over. Set at 56.5 points, the Vikings have seen the over hit in two-thirds of their last nine road games while the Seahawks have gone over in four of their last five.
It may seem crazy to take an over at 56.5 points but consider the fact the higher the Over in the NFL, the more likely it is to actually go over.
FACT OR MYTH…never play the OVER with an NFL total of 57 or higher!
The @WagerTalk Did you Know….shows us that since 1989 there have been 30 games with a total of 57 or higher.
They are 21-8-1 O/U (72.4% to the Over).
Applies to MIN/SEA this week. pic.twitter.com/fvrd6FQXFX
— Ralph Michaels (@CalSportsLV) October 8, 2020
While the trend is set for 57 points, the 72.4% Over rate still should make NFL bettors think about it.
With just under a dozen games on Sunday, NFL betting followers can find themselves playing the sportsbooks easily with the right trends. The games begin at 1 p.m. ET but fold into Monday and Tuesday this week as the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots will play at 5 p.m. on Monday followed by the Los Angeles Chargers against the New Orleans Saints at 8:15 p.m – the actual Monday Night Football game.
The Tuesday Night Football game will be the rescheduled Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans game that will kick off at 7 p.m.
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Michael began writing as an NBA content writer and has spent time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant. A graduate of both schools, he covers topics focused on legal sports betting, betting odds, and casino reviews. Michael likes to golf, play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching NBA games.