The Florida State Seminoles (1-2 overall, 0-2 ACC) head to South Bend, Ind., to play the No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0, 1-0) in Notre Dame Stadium at 7 p.m. ET (on NBC). Below, we analyze the Florida State-Notre Dame college football betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
The Fighting Irish are ranked 5th in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Florida State at Notre Dame: Betting odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:15 a.m. ET.
Money line: Florida State +700 (bet $100 to win $700) | Notre Dame -1250 (bet $1250 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Florida State +21 (-110) | Notre Dame -21 (-110)
Over/Under: 53.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Florida State at Notre Dame: Three things to know
Notre Dame agreed to play a full ACC schedule and are eligible to win the 2020 ACC Championship as a result of COVID-related logistics issues.
Florida State is on a six-game losing streak against the spread dating back to last season. The Seminoles only won two of those games outright and both of them were against FCS schools.
Notre Dame blasted Florida State 42-13 in their last meeting on Nov. 2018. But FSU was led by a different regime, steered by former head coach Willie Taggert. For the Notre Dame, QB Ian Book was a starter but missed the game with core muscle injuries.
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Florida State at Notre Dame: Odds, betting lines and picks
Notre Dame 38, Florida State 13
Money line (ML)
Notre Dame’s (-1250) major edge in this game that cannot go overlooked is in the trenches, specifically with its defensive line vs. the Seminoles’ offensive line.
Florida State (+700) has allowed six sacks in its two games against conference foes this season—Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Miami Hurricanes—and its offensive line is 67th out of 74 graded units in sack rate, according to FootballOutsiders.com. The Fighting Irish’s defensive line has the 23rd-ranked sack rate, fifth-best stuff rate and power success rate, and the 3rd-highest opportunity rate.
Notre Dame is going to trample Florida State, but there’s no way I am risking 12.5 times my potential return on a Fighting Irish straight-up win. PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread (ATS)
Mike Norvell is in his first year as head coach of Florida State +21 (-110). He was hired following an impressive four-year stint as the Memphis Tigers coach. It’s been a tough start to his tenure as the Seminoles haven’t covered once, lost both of its conference games and were down 14 points after the first quarter to FCS Jacksonville State last week.
Book and the offense for NOTRE DAME -21 (-110) hasn’t been overly impressive thus far. Two of Book’s biggest weapons last season—WR Chase Claypool and TE Cole Kmet—are in the NFL now, but this should be a great right game for him. Florida State’s pass defense is 68th out of 75 teams in opponent’s completion percentage and 54th in opponent’s passing yards per game.
BET NOTRE DAME.
I lean Under 53.5 (-110) because Notre Dame’s defense has been on point, it lost offensive production to the NFL Draft and Florida State’s offense has been trash so far this season. But it’s only a lean because it’s hard to cover a 21-point spread and cash an Under.
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