- ATP Vienna Open favorite Novak Djokovic headlines Friday’s men’s quarterfinal Action
- Unseeded Grigor Dimitrov and Daniel Evans seek a semifinal berth
- Where can we find strong betting value?
Four of the top five seeds in Austria have reached the quarterfinals at the ATP Vienna Open.
Novak Djokovic continues to sail along but could Lorenzo Sonego pull an upset? Because Grigor Dimitrov surprised third seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, an unlikely showdown is on tap for Friday. Dimitrov faces Daniel Evans with a potential date with Djokovic for the victor.
There are lots of ways to bet on tennis. Which options are the most enticing for these quarterfinals in Vienna? Let’s look closely at two of the quarters and consider our options.
Djokovic vs Sonego Erste Bank Open Quarterfinal Odds
|Novak Djokovic||-5.5 games (-157)||-5000||Over 18.5 games (-124)|
|Lorenzo Sonego||+5.5 games (+123)||+1600||Under 18.5 games (-104)|
Odds from DraftKings taken Oct. 29
Djokovic vs Sonego History
This is the first meeting between the top player in the world and the 25-year-old Italian. Djokovic has gone more than a year since losing to an unseeded player in any tournament. Sonego is 2-6 this year against seeded opponents.
Djokovic Has Been Nearly Perfect in 2020
Djokovic has lost two matches this year. The first was his unfortunate disqualification in the US Open against Pablo Carreno Busta.
His only other defeat was against Nadal in the French Open Final.
Djokovic has rarely played in Vienna but he did win the event in 2007.
Can Sonego Be Competitive?
Sonego is ranked at a career-high number 42 in the world right now. He has one ATP Tour victory, the Antalya Open last year.
After reaching the fourth round of the French Open, a career-best in a major, Sonego went 1-1 in the Sardegna Open. In the first round in Vienna, he beat Dusan Lajovic in straight sets. He won back-to-back tiebreaks to beat Hubert Hurkacz on Thursday.
Sonego is playing his best tennis but simply has not faced anywhere close to this level of competition. He hasn’t been dominating lesser players and is skiing uphill in this match. Djokovic is not destroying people, but this is a major mismatch. While Djokovic -5.5 games (-157) is a fair price, the idea of a short match and cashing in on it is intriguing. Djokovic -7.5 (+280) is the play.
Dimitrov vs Evans Erste Bank Open Quarterfinal Odds
|Grigor Dimitrov||-3.5 games (-110)||-200||Over 22.5 games (-110)|
|Daniel Evans||+3.5 games (-125)||+160||Under 22.5 games (-125)|
Dimitrov vs Evans History
This is the fifth meeting between Dimitrov and Evans and the second this year. Dimitrov is 3-1 against Evans including a three-set win at the ATP Cup in Australia in January.
Dimitrov beat Evans on grass in 2011. Evans won a hard court straight-set affair in 2016. Last year Dimitrov won a straight-set match outdoors in China on a hard court.
Dimitrov Is Turning Back the Clock
Dimitrov was the third-ranked player in the world in 2017 and currently sits at 20th. However, he is playing really well and the arrow is pointing up.
Injuries and inconsistency plagued him over the last couple of years, but since a second-round exit at the US Open Dimitrov advanced to the fourth round at the French Open, the semis in Antwerp, and has played well in Austria.
After a straight sets win over Karen Khachanov in the first round, he lost the opening set to Tsitsipas, 7-6(5), on Thursday but rallied for the victory winning the next two sets 6-4, 6-3.
Evans is Still Seeking His First Title
Evans is looking to climb back into the Top 20 after briefly reaching that level in March. While Kei Nishikori beat him during the first round at the French Open, it was an epic five-set affair.
Evans followed the setback in Paris with a first round loss to Stan Wawrinka in St. Petersburg. He rebounded by reaching the semis in Antwerp.
His opening match in Austria was one set apiece when Aljaz Bedene retired. He got by Jurij Rodionov in straight sets on Thursday.
While there is a reasonable argument that this is going to be a very competitive and lengthy match, and the odds for three sets or over on games are of interest, the bottom line is Dimitrov is just playing better. He has the head-to-head history on his side and whether you want to give 3.5 games (-110) or play for Dimitrov to win in straight sets (+110) that is the preferred side.