Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: AFC Championship Round Odds and Computer Picks January 24, 2021

The AFC Championship round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs features a showdown between the Buffalo Bills (13-3) (who are 3-point underdogs) and the Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) on January 24, 2021 at 6:40 PM ET on CBS. The game’s point total is set at 53.5.

Game Info

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 24, 2021
  • Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Kansas City, MO
  • Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium

Place a bet on the Chiefs or the Bills in their Week 3 matchup.

Betting Information

Chiefs vs Bills Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Chiefs -3.0 100 -120 53.5 -110 -110 -145 125

Chiefs Betting Insights

  • Kansas City has compiled a losing 7-9 record against the spread this season.
  • The Chiefs are just 5-8 ATS when playing as at least 3.0-point favorites.
  • Kansas City has played in eight games this year that went over the point total (50% of its outings).
  • The Chiefs, on average, score 6.2 more points per game this season (29.6) than the Bills allow (23.4).
  • In games where Kansas City score at least 29.6 points this season, they are 8-1 overall and 5-4 against the spread.
  • When the Buffalo defense allows 23.4 points or fewer this year, the Bills have accumulated an 8-0 overall record and a 6-2 record against the spread.

Bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

Bills Betting Insights

  • 11 of Buffalo’s 16 games this year have gone over the point total (68.8% of its outings).
  • Buffalo has put together an 11-5 record against the spread this season.
  • The Bills are 5-4 ATS when playing as at least 3.0-point underdogs.
  • The Bills have averaged 8.7 more points this season (31.3) than the Chiefs have allowed (22.6).
  • Buffalo is 6-0 overall and 6-0 against the spread when they score at least 31.3 points this season.
  • Kansas City is 9-0 overall and 6-3 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 22.6 points.

Bet on the Bills to win the Super Bowl.

Computer Picks

Computer picks for Chiefs vs Bills
ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Bills (+3) Under (53.5) Chiefs 27 Bills 26

Total Facts

  • The Chiefs’ average point total in outings this season is 52.2, 1.3 points below the total in this game.
  • Bills games this year have averaged an over/under of 54.8 points, 1.3 more than the point total in this matchup.
  • The Chiefs and their opponents have combined for 53.5 points — this matchup’s over/under — in nine of 16 outings (56.2%) this season.
  • The Bills have played in eight games this year (out of 16 total matchups — 50% of opportunities) where they and their opponents combined to score more than 53.5 points.
  • The Chiefs and the Bills combine to average 7.4 more points per game than the total of 53.5 set for this game.
  • The Chiefs and the Bills have seen their opponents average a combined 7.5 fewer points per game than the over/under of 53.5 set in this outing.

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Chiefs vs Bills: Last 5 Meetings

In the past five meetings between these two squads, Kansas City has a 4-1 advantage over Buffalo. In those games against the Bills, the Chiefs have a 1-0 record against the spread. Kansas City outscored Buffalo 106-81 in those five head-to-head matchups.

Chiefs vs Bills: Last Five Meetings
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
10/19/2020 Chiefs Bills -5.50 54.50 -245 +210 466-206 KC 26-17 KC
11/26/2017 N/A Chiefs N/A N/A N/A N/A 268-236 BUF 16-10 BUF
11/29/2015 N/A Chiefs N/A N/A N/A N/A 415-413 BUF 30-22 KC
11/9/2014 N/A Bills N/A N/A N/A N/A 364-278 BUF 17-13 KC
11/3/2013 N/A Bills N/A N/A N/A N/A 470-210 BUF 23-13 KC

Betting Insights: Last Three Games (Both Teams)

  • Kansas City is just 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 straight up over their last three contests.
  • The over has been kind to Kansas City. They have gone over the total two times in their last three outcomes.
  • The Chiefs have averaged a total of 50.3 combined points over their last three games, 3.2 less than this matchup’s total of 53.5.
  • Buffalo has been in top form recently, going 3-0 against the spread and 3-0 straight up over their last three contests.
  • Buffalo has gone over the total two times in their last three games.
  • The Bills total over the last three games is 11.8 points greater than the 53.5 total given for this matchup.

Injury Report

Chiefs: CB DeAndre Baker: Out (Leg), CB Alex Brown: Out (Torn Acl), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Questionable (Ankle), ILB Emmanuel Smith: Out (Hamstring), CB Rashad Fenton: Questionable (Ankle), TE Deon Yelder: Out (Groin), QB Patrick Mahomes: Questionable (Concussion), DE Taco Charlton: Out (Leg), CB Bashaud Breeland: Questionable (Concussion), WR Sammy Watkins: Questionable (Calf), G Kelechi Osemele: Out (Knee), OT Mitchell Schwartz: Out (Back), LB Willie Gay Jr.: Questionable (Ankle)

Bills: RB Zack Moss: Out (Ankle), OLB Del’Shawn Phillips: Out (Quadriceps), WR Isaiah Hodgins: Out (Shoulder), TE Tommy Sweeney: Out (Foot), CB Cam Lewis: Out (Wrist), OT Cody Ford: Out (Knee), DE Darryl Johnson: Questionable (Knee)

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