Boise State vs San Jose State Picks and Odds for Mountain West Championship

Hank Bachmeier

Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier (19) in action against Hawaii during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 21, 2020, in Honolulu. (AP Photo/Marco Garcia)
  • Boise State and San Jose State face-off for the Mountain West Championship on Saturday, December 19th
  • The Broncos have won two of the last three conference titles
  • Read below for the odds, spread and betting prediction

The Mountain West Championship is on the line when Boise State and San Jose State face-off in the conference title game in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 19th. The Broncos will be looking to win their third Mountain West Championship in four years.

The Broncos are favored by almost a touchdown, even though both teams are undefeated in conference play this season. Is San Jose State capable of pulling off the upset?

Boise State vs San Jose State Mountain West Championship Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boise State Broncos -6.5 (-109) -230 0 54.5 (-109)
No. 24 San Jose State Spartans +6.5 (-112) +180 U 54.5 (-112)

Odds taken Dec. 16 at DraftKings

Broncos Have Been Here Before

Boise State is no stranger to the Mountain West Championship. The Broncos have now made it to the conference title game in four straight years, winning against Hawaii last season and against Fresno State in 2017. They fell short in 2018 with a close 19-16 OT loss at the hands of the Bulldogs.

Experience is a big advantage for Boise State, as the Spartans are making their first-ever appearance in the Mountain West Championship game. The Broncos are led by sophomore QB Hank Bachmeier, who has thrown for 929 yards and six touchdowns with just two interceptions in four games.

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The Broncos dominated conference competition this season, but in their toughest test against BYU, they were decimated 51-17. While Bachmeier wasn’t available in that game, the Cougars still showcased a formula for beating this team. BYU neutralized RB Andrew Van Buren and Boise’s run game, while exploiting the Broncos defense for over 500 yards.

2020 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker

Spartans Are Talented Underdog

San Jose State enters the Mountain West Championship game with a perfect 6-0 record and a chance to win its first ever conference title. While the Spartans weren’t scheduled a talented team such as BYU, they took care of business in their conference games. They covered the spread in every single game, including winning outright against Air Force and San Diego State as big underdogs.

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The Spartans have their own talented QB in senior Nick Starkel, who has thrown for 1,453 yards and 13 touchdowns with four interceptions in six games. San Jose State also has a strong run game, with the duo of Tyler Nevens and Kairee Robinson combining for 700 yards of offense on the ground. They could have a big outing against a Broncos defense that has struggled to stop the run.

The big concern for the Spartans is their secondary, as it’s currently allowing almost 230 yards per game through the air. The positive is their run defense has been lights out, and should be able to contain Boise State’s Van Buren. As long as Starkel and the offense continue to do what they’ve done all season, the Spartans should keep this game close.

What’s the Best Bet?

Boise State is getting plenty of respect with this line, and rightfully so. They’ve been the cream of the crop in the Mountain West for several years and are also 14-0 all-time against the Spartans. While history is on their side, there’s still plenty of value taking the points with the underdog.

The Spartans have just as good an offense and will have a solid gameplan to contain Boise’s attack. The Broncos passing game is heavily dependent on WR Khalil Shakir, who has been targeted two-and-a-half more time than any other player. Expect San Jose State to focus heavily on Shakir and following in BYU’s footsteps when it comes to neutralizing the Broncos ground game.

This Spartans team has come a long way under coach Brent Brennan and are more than capable of hanging around with the Broncos. They haven’t allowed more than 24 points in a game and are thriving in the underdog role. Boise State has holes on defense and its offense managed just 17 points last time out against Wyoming.

These two teams are more evenly matched then this line indicates and should play a close game. Take the points with the underdog, and don’t hesitate to sprinkle on the moneyline.

Pick: San Jose State +6.5 (-112)

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