Biden’s election odds lead steady, leading in swing states

Featured in this article:

  • Biden’s odds lead carries implied probability of better than 64%
  • United States dealing with mounting coronavirus cases and sinking stock market
  • Biden leading President Trump in most battleground / swing states

Ever since he took office back in 2017, President Donald Trump has leaned heavily on stock markets to act as barometers for the overall health of his economy. He cites it so often, the financial media outlet Bloomberg built a web page tracker dedicated to each time Trump tweets about the economy and/or stock market. Granted, most economists are quick to point out that while the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ do possess economic traits, to correlate the health of the U.S. economy when markets are up or down is a fool’s errand.

In fact, because many Americans don’t have a 401K, brokerage account or any retirement savings, President Trump’s assertion that up market equals strong economy is poppycock. Yet, imagine the president’s distress when looking at the Dow Jones down 800 points six days before the voting public head out to the polls. On another screen, reports of rising coronavirus cases debunk President Trump’s claim that “we’re turning a corner” in the pandemic fight. While the correlation between stock market movement and strength of the economy may be disconnected from reality, this week’s market sell-off is definitely linked to a worldwide surge in COVID-19 cases. It’s also likely part of the reason why President Trump has gained no ground in odds to win the 2020 election nor positive movement in national polling.

At online sportsbook Bovada, Joe Biden’s odds to win the election improved from -165 this time last week to -180 six days out from Election Day. President Trump’s dipped from +125 to +150 week-over-week, which carries and implied probability to win of just 40%.

2020 U.S. Election Betting Odds Online Sportsbook (10/28/20) Online Sportsbook (10/28/20)
Candidate Bovada BetOnline
Donald Trump +150 (Last week +125) +175 (Last week N/A)
Joe Biden -180 (Last week -165) -200 (Last week N/A)

2020 U.S. Election Odds: Poll Positions

With betting odds and national polling both favoring former vice-president Biden, the results of Rasmussen’s latest White House Watch presidential poll are worthy of an eye brow raise. The conservative-leaning polling outlet now has President Trump ahead by one point, 48-47, two weeks removed from when Biden led the incumbent by 12 points in the same poll. The telephone and online survey of 1,500 likely voters pushed Trump ahead for the first time since mid-September. Of those polled, 2% remained undecided with less than a week until election day. Rasmussen’s daily presidential approval index rallied out of the negatives for the first time since September 22 and checked in this week at zero (0).

On the off chance this is the first U.S. presidential election you’ve wagered on, know there is a difference between the popular (counting) vote and electoral college vote. At the end of the day, the popular vote doesn’t matter, but each of the 50 states are assigned a certain number of electoral votes, which are awarded to the candidates with the most support. For President Trump or Joe Biden to win the 2020 election, they must earn 270 electoral college votes to be declared the winner.

For context, Democrat-leaning California possesses the most electoral college votes with 55, while seven states and the District of Columbia possess the fewest of 3 each. Campaign strategy is to win so-called battleground states with the most electoral college votes where the Republican and Democratic vote has been historically split down the middle. With less than a week to go, Biden leads in most of those swing states according to FiveThirtyEight’s most-recent polling numbers.

  • Arizona – Biden leads by 5 points (11 electoral college votes)
  • Florida – Biden leads by 2 points (29 electoral college votes)
  • Georgia – Biden leads by 1 point (16 electoral college votes)
  • Michigan – Biden leads by 8 points (16 electoral college votes)
  • North Carolina – Biden leads by 2 points (15 electoral college votes)
  • Pennsylvania – Biden leads by 5 points (20 electoral college votes)
  • Wisconsin – Biden leads by 9 points (10 electoral college votes)

In the lead up to November 3, Gamble Online will publish weekly 2020 U.S. election betting coverage with the latest polling news and updated betting odds. If you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on the 2020 United States election or are interested in learning more about the online sportsbooks that offer political odds and unique prop bets, be sure to check out our new expert 2020 election guide.

Latest posts