Biden-Trump Swing State Odds vs. Polls – November 1

We’ve seen the polls. We’ve seen the early voting lines. The gambling sites are seeing all of this and monitoring the action. They continue to move the line in accordance with this information. Democratic candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden remained a -180 favorite to become the next US President. The sitting President, Donald Trump, pays $16 for every $10 bet should he win. Here we look at each of the swing state polls and compare these with the current odds.

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Florida – Trump -160/Biden +130Expected Outcome – Biden +130: The concern here among Democratic operatives is the lack of support among Latin voters in South Florida. There also appears to be momentum here for the Trump camp. Still other poll information points to Democrats enjoying an advantage in early voting, Independents, white college educated females and seniors shifting their support from Trump to Biden.

This is a must win for Trump and a likely path to the Presidency for Biden. Polls conducted end of this past week have Biden up 1 to 3 points.

Trafalgar Group is more Republican leaning and had Trump up just three points in the Sunshine State. NY Times/Siena had Biden up three points while taking into account third party candidates. An ABC News/Wash Post poll did have Trump up two points.

Monmouth had Biden up as high as six points but does take into account the third party candidate.

Susquehanna had Trump up one point in its most recent poll but four points just days prior.

The Real Clear Politics has Biden up just shy of a point.

Pennsylvania – Biden -160/Trump +155Expected Outcome – Biden -160 : The only sure bet here is that we probably won’t know the winner until after Tuesday night.

We know the state has seen record turnout for early voting.

Biden is up in EVERY critical poll and beyond the margin of error. Even the very Trump-friendly Trafalgar Group has the race tied. Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports had Biden up 3 in their most recent poll last week while Democrat-leaning Quinnipiac had Biden up 7. It’s easy to see why the Real Clear Politics average would be 4.

Trump is likely to lose if he can’t win PA. If Pennsylvania goes, the logic is that the more Democratic-friendly Michigan and Wisconsin go down with it.

Wisconsin – Biden -300/Trump +240Expected Outcome – Biden -300 : Neither or BetOnline consider the Badger State winable for Trump.

The most recent nonpartisan polls have Biden winning by 8 or more points.

North Carolina – Biden -135/Trump +105Expected Outcome – Biden -135: If you are in the Biden camp, you’re starting to feel pretty good about a state that really could go either way.

One of the more telling signs Biden has the advantage is that GOP-leaning Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports has Trump winning by just 1 to 2 points in their just released polls. CNN and NBC both have Biden up 6 points, well outside the margin of error.

Michigan – Biden -300/Trump +240Expected Outcome – Biden -300: Neither or BetOnline consider Michigan winable for Trump.

Biden is up 7 or more points in all recent polls. Michigan is actually showing some late signs of tightening more so than Wisconsin with Biden up previously by 8 or more in most polls.

Ohio – Trump -285/Biden +225Expected Outcome – Trump -285: BetOnline has Trump a rather strong favorite considering the tightening polls here. Democrat-leaning Quinnipiac has Biden up 5 points in the Buckeye State. Emerson has him up one point. These are the two most recent polls. The Fox News poll, which is not considered partisan-leaning despite the network itself being more conservative, had Trump up just three points the prior week and within the margin of error.

The Real Clear Politics average is DEAD HEAT. would lean Ohio Trump but the value bet is Biden paying out $22.50 for every $10 bet.

Trump probably cannot lose Ohio and still win the Presidency.

Minnesota – Biden -350/Trump +275Expected Outcome – Biden -350: Neither or BetOnline consider this state winable for Trump. Even Trafalgar agrees and has Biden up 3 points.

Iowa – Trump -250/Biden +190Expected Outcome – Trump -250: Trump backers got some of the best news in weeks with a Des Moines Register poll showing the sitting President way up overnight Saturday (7 points). Most anticipate this one to be much closer but with a Trump edge. Even Quinnipiac had Trump up a point. BetOnline and see this one getting out of reach for Biden.

Arizona – Biden -130/Trump EvenExpected Outcome – Biden -130: Studying polling from this state over the last two months it is clear the numbers are tightening. The Real Clear Politics average has Biden by just over 1 point.

Nevada – Biden -350/Trump +275Expected Outcome – Biden -350: Even Republican-leaning polls have Nevada giving Biden the two-point edge. Real Clear Politics has him with a 3.6 average lead.

But unlike Wisconsin and Michigan, would not be so quick to say this is out-of-reach for Trump. That’s because, when it comes to surveying public opinion, Nevada is still considered the Wild West.

The good news for Biden is that he appears to be doing very well with Latinos here.

Texas – Trump -325/Biden +250Expected Outcome – Trump -325: Early voting indicators in Texas has Democrats thrilled. They will likely considered it a win should Biden fall within two points.

BetOnline is having none of it when it comes to the final results. Trump is up in most polls with the exception of the Dallas Morning News (Biden up 3).

Georgia – Trump -160/Biden +130Expected Outcome – Biden +130: Texas may not go blue but Georgia looks like it will.

Real Clear Politics has Biden just shy of a 1-point victory here. This one should be a huge nail-biter that just barely favors Biden.

New Hampshire – Biden -400/Trump +300Expected Outcome – Biden -400: Neither or BetOnline consider this state winable for Trump. Polls have Biden up 8 to 12 points.

– Chris Costigan, Publisher

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