2021 Farmers Insurance Open Tournament Matchup Picks and Odds

Ryan Palmer

Ryan Palmer hits from the 18th tee during the final round of the Zozo Championship golf tournament Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020, in Thousand Oaks, Calif. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
  • See who SBD’s golf guys are taking in Tournament Matchups at Torrey Pines this week
  • Our picks are comprised of players who usually perform well at the Farmers Insurance Open
  • Odds and analysis on 72 hole matchup plays for this week’s PGA Tour event can be found below

The PGA Tour moves from the California deserts out to the pacific coast this week for the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines just outside San Diego.

While Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are the heavy favorites, there’s plenty of intriguing 72-hole matchup picks to add to your card for golf action this weekend. SBD’s two biggest golf guys have you covered with what they’re playing for the weekend’s Tour action below.

Farmers Insurance Open Matchup Picks and Odds

Editor Pick #1 Pick #2
Ryan Sura Matthew Wolff (-143) vs Jason Kokrak Ryan Palmer (+100) vs Billy Horschel
Mitch Robson Corey Conners (-118) vs John Huh Carlos Ortiz (-110) vs Matt Jones

Odds taken January 27th at DraftKings

Matthew Wolff’s Big Game Set for Big Week

In his first full season on the PGA Tour, Matthew Wolff did not disappoint. The 21-year-old earned his first-career PGA Tour victory at the 3M Open and is now ranked 15th in OGWR.

Wolff finished 21st at Torrey Pines last year, and that was with an opening-round 76. The young bomber has played extremely well on older-style golf courses.

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Wolff finished second at the US Open at Winged Foot, and finished fourth at TPC Harding Park, the host of the 2021 PGA Championship. These golf courses are old designs with mostly Poa Annua putting surfaces, which he putts like a magician on.

The odds are quite juicy on this one, but Wolff should have no problem finishing ahead of Kokrak. The 35-year-old has finished 20th and 21st at this event over the last two years. However, his last four starts include two missed cuts and only one Top 40.

With Kokrak struggling to find his game right now, Wolff has the edge in this matchup.

Ryan Palmer a Plus-Odds Steal

At 55/1 this week, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Ryan Palmer. The 44-year-old had a great 2020 campaign, and he’s looking to carry that momentum into 2021.

In 2020, Palmer’s most notable finishes were a second-place finish at Muirfield Village and a top five finish at Sherwood Country Club in California. La Jolla, California is the setting for Torrey Pines, a place Palmer has grown fond of over the years.

Palmer finished second in 2018, 13th in 2019, and 21st in 2020 at the Farmers Insurance Open. If it weren’t for final rounds of 75 (2019) and 77 (2020) the last two years, Palmer could have easily turned those into Top 10 finishes.

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The Florida Gator, Billy Horschel, is Palmer’s matchup this week. Over the last four years, apart from an eighth-place finish in 2019, Horschel has finished inside the Top 60 just once at Torrey Pines.

With Palmer coming off a top five finish at Kapalua and his history at Torrey Pines, +100 is a great price for Palmer to beat Horschel this week.

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Corey Conners a Layup vs John Huh

Although you’re not getting any kind of crazy value, Corey Conners is my favorite matchup play at odds of -118 against John Huh this week.

Torrey Pines is known as a bomber’s paradise, and Conners has fared well off the tee during the wraparound 2020-21 season so far, ranking 20th in SG: Off-the-tee.

He’s finished top twenty in the last three tournaments he’s played (including T-10 at Augusta National) and should be set up for success as he finished inside the top 30 when he first played the Farmers in 2018.

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Although Huh fared well on the Fall circuit – even finishing 12th at the RSM Classic – this will be his first full event against a legitimate PGA Tour field in over a year.

He finished T-45 at last year’s Farmers, and if we expect a similar result this week, it won’t be enough to finish ahead of Conners.

Ride Carlos Ortiz in Matchup of Hot Hands

Both Carlos Ortiz and Matt Jones have been hot through the Fall and Winter of the Tour schedule, as both own a top five and multiple top 20 finishes since November. The 29-year-old Ortiz even won his first PGA Tour event at the Vivint Houston Open, posting four straight sub-70 rounds en route to victory at -13.

In the last tournament both played, Jones actually finished just ahead of Ortiz from the Sony Open, but I’m on Ortiz to out-duel the Aussie at the Farmers.

Despite the poor history noted above, Ortiz is a strong 24th in strokes gained off the tee (Jones ranks just 160th) and should put himself in position for good second shots into greens. With his win on Poa in Houston, Ortiz will keep the good times rolling in his first event on continental US soil in 2021.

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