2021 Australian Open Finals Expert Analysis – Tennis Betting

With my top two picks to win this year’s Australian Open set for what looks like a thrilling finals showdown, it’s time to find out which player is offering the best betting value against their Australian Open odds.

2021 Men’s Australian Open Finals Betting Preview

#1 Novak Djokovic Vs #4 Daniil Medvedev

  • When: Sunday, Feb. 21, 2021 at 3:30 AM ET

Could fourth-seeded Russian Daniil Medvedev pull off the upset over top-seeded Novak Djokovic to cash in as the underdog sportsbook betting pick?

Will world No. 1 Novak Djokovic claim his third straight title in Australia to pull off a stunning three-peat Down Under?

Will Djokovic live up to his status as the prohibitive favorite by winning the 2021 Australian Open men’s final on Sunday?

Let’s find try to find that out.

Djokovic Looking For the Three-Peat!

If you didn’t know before, now you do. The world No. 1 has won two straight and four of the last six Australian Open titles. Including his run to this year’s finals, the 33-year-old Djokovic is 81-8 all-time in the Aussie Open. The Serbian has won a record, eight Australian Open titles overall (2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020).

This year, Djokovic won his opener over Frenchman Jeremy Chardy in straight sets, but needed four sets to get past American Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (2), 6-3. The two-time reigning champ then needed five sets to get past American Taylor Fritz in the third round. After taking a 2-0 lead, Djokovic suffered an apparent ab injury early in the third set that allowed Fritz to get the match to a fifth set. Djokovic then responded with a 6-2 final set that sent Fritz packing.

The 17-time slam winner needed four sets to get past 14th-seeded Canadian Milos Raonic and four more sets to get past sixth-seeded Alex Zverev in the quarterfinals. Finally, the world No. 1 put an end to the eye-opening run of unseeded qualifier Aslan Karatsev in three swift sets, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 on Thursday. Now, Djokovic enters the finals leading all men in aces serves (100) while ranking third in break points won (30), fourth in first serve return points won (121) and first in second serve return points won (127).

Medvedev Puts The D In Dangerous!

The world No. 4 had never been past the fourth round in Australia prior to this year, but I expected him to reach this year’s finals and he hasn’t disappointed. Medvedev, who just turned 25-years-old on Feb. 11, crushed Vasek Pospisil and Roberto Carballes Baena in straight sets in his first two matches. The cerebral Russian then need five sets to get past Serbian Filip Krajinovic in the third round.

Medvedev then smacked American Mackenzie McDonald and fellow Russian Andrey Rublev senseless in consecutive matches in the fourth round and quarterfinals. The still blossoming star then looked fantastic in his dominating 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 semifinals win over fifth-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the wee hours of Friday morning. Medvedev comes into the finals ranked fourth in aces (74), first in break points won (35) and seventh in first serve points won (81%). The Russian also ranks second in first serve return points won and second in second serve points won (103).

Prediction

Here’s what I wrote just prior to the start of this year’s Australian Open:

“The smart money is on Novak Djokovic, but something tells me that Daniil Medvedev is not going to be denied of claiming his first grand slam title. Medvedev is 3-4 in seven career matches against Djokovic, but has won three of the last four meetings after losing his first three encounters against the world No. 1 Medvedev took out Djokovic 6-3, 6-3 in last year’s season-ending ATP Finals and I believe he’s the pick to win the 2021 Australian Open.”

I’ve seen absolutely nothing to sway my belief that Daniil Medvedev is going to beat Novak Djokovic in this year’s championship. The Russian is the bigger and younger player in this affair and should have a little bit more left in the tank than the 33-year-old Djokovic.

More importantly, I genuinely believe that Medvedev is the most cerebral player in the world today and that he will figure out a way to dethrone Djokovic in this match. There aren’t many players that don’t have a single weakness that Djokovic can attack, but Daniil Medvedev is one of those rare players. The Russian has a very effective serve and both powerful and consistent ground strokes off of both wings. It won’t be much of an upset for me, but I’ve got Daniil Medvedev scratching out the hard-fought win in an epic affair.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev In 5 Sets


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