2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview: Winner Prediction, Dark Horses and Big-Odds Bets

California will host a much-changed version of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2021, which is set to feature all of the ‘pros’ but not so much of the ‘am’.

Due to coronavirus protocols, the format has been changed so that only professionals will contest this year’s tournament—beginning Thursday, February 11—without their usual celebrity partners. The 2021 competition will feature a cut after 36 holes (rather than the usual 54) and be played across only two courses—Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course—with Monterrey Peninsula removed from the schedule.

Winner odds have also been blown wide open following world No. 1 Dustin Johnson’s decision to withdraw from this year’s pro-am, removing the major favorite from the running. A two-time winner at Pebble Beach (2009-10), “DJ” would have led the odds following Sunday’s win at the Saudi International, with Patrick Cantlay since taking over as +650 frontrunner at 888 Sport NJ.

But rather than Californian Cantlay, it’s a resurgent force from Texas who draws most attention travelling to Pebble Beach. Jordan Spieth is set to tee off at more than triple the outright leader’s price (+2000), but there’s plenty of cause to pile on a dark horse who once again looks capable of charging the field following his tie for fourth at the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

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Spieth’s third-round 61 in Arizona was the joint-lowest of his career, and the hype around his name is once again building after a year or two in the wilderness. Despite the fact the Waste Management Open was the first tournament this season in which Spieth has failed to record a round over par, that’s enough to spell danger for his peers if it’s a sign of things to come.

The 27-year-old—who won this tournament in 2017—looked phenomenal in Phoenix even though he trailed the entire field of those who made the cut in driving accuracy (41.07 percent). His peerless putting made up for any shortcomings off the tee, which should be well-suited at Pebble Beach given there’s plenty of shorter fairways and dog-leg approaches involved.

Australia’s Jason Day has performed well on these courses over the past decade or so having finished among the top 10 in six of his last eight appearances, including a share of the runner-up prize in 2018. His +1600 price looks particularly promising with a star like Johnson out of contention, offering above evens to finish as the top Australian in the field (+160).

Francesco Molinari is another sleeper pick who looks a good bet to challenge for the grand prize at +2200 odds following back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two PGA Tour appearances. Alternatively, the Italian offers more modest returns of +450 to finish highest among European contenders, with only England’s Paul Casey (+225) ahead of him in that field.

Prediction: Jordan Spieth to win (+2000)

Top European: Francesco Molinari (+450)

Top Australian: Jason Day (+160)

2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Odds Leaders

Player

Outright Win Odds

Patrick Cantlay

+650

Daniel Berger

+1200

Paul Casey

+1500

Jason Day

+1600

Will Zalatoris

+1800

Jordan Spieth

+2000

Francesco Molinari

+2200

Cameron Davis

+2800

Si Woo Kim

+2800

Kevin Streelman

+3000

Max Homa

+3000

Sam Burns

+3000

Phil Mickelson

+3300

Rickie Fowler

+3300

Cameron Tringale

+4000

Henrik Norlander

+4000

Alex Noren

+4500

Odds via 888 Sport NJ

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